[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 15 December 09
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Dec 16 10:31:33 EST 2009
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 15/2330Z DECEMBER 2009 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 15 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 16 DECEMBER - 18 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 15 Dec: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 15 Dec: 82/23
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
16 Dec 17 Dec 18 Dec
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 82/23 82/23 82/23
COMMENT: A number of B-class events occurred over the past 24
hours. Region 1035 (N30 W05) grew rapidly and may produce B,
and even C-class x-ray events, over the next 24 hours. The solar
wind speed remained below 300 km/s while the Bz component of
the interplanetary magnetic field ranged between +/- 5 nT.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 15 Dec: Quiet. Isolated
unsettled to active periods at higher latitudes.
Estimated Indices 15 Dec : A K
Australian Region 4 11211112
Darwin 3 11110112
Townsville 4 21211121
Learmonth 4 11211112
Canberra 0 00100001
Hobart 2 01200011
Casey(Ant) 8 33421122
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 15 Dec :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 15 Dec : A
Fredericksburg 0
Planetary 0
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 14 Dec : A K
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 4 0322 0100
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
16 Dec 5 Quiet
17 Dec 5 Quiet
18 Dec 6 Mostly quiet, isolated unsettled periods possible
at higher latitudes.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
15 Dec Fair-normal Fair-normal Fair-normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
16 Dec Fair-normal Fair-normal Fair-normal
17 Dec Fair-normal Fair-normal Fair-normal
18 Dec Fair-normal Fair-normal Fair-normal
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
15 Dec -24
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values to 25% depressed.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted with depressions to 40% at times 00-03,
10-11, 17 and 20-23 UT.
Northern Australian Region:
Darwin: depressions to 40% 00-18 UT then near
predicted monthly values. Sporadic E observed around
10-16 UT and some early morning spread F.
Townsville: depressions to 25% 00-06 UT then near
predicted monthly values to enhanced.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Norfolk Is: depressions to 30% 00-17 UT then near
predicted. Some sporadic E 00-03, 15-23 UT.
Brisbane: near predicted monthly values with depressions
to 30% 14-18 UT. Sporadic E observed 00-12 UT, much of the
time blanketing.
Canberra/Sydney: near predicted monthly values with
depressions to 25% 05-07, 11-15 UT. Sporadic E blanketing
00-04 UT and at Sydney 09-10 UT.
Hobart: Near predicted monthly values with depressions to
25% 01-07 and 12-17 UT. Sporadic E observed 00-19 UT.
Christchurch: near predicted monthly values with
depressions to 20% 04-13 UT. Blanketing sporadic E 01-02 UT.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values to 15% depressed.
Sporadic E observed 09-16 UT at Macquarie Is.,
blanketing at times, and at Casey 15-17 UT.
Predicted Monthly T index for December: 1
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
16 Dec -20 Near predicted monthly values to 30% depressed
at times.
17 Dec -15 Near predicted monthly values to 30% depressed
at times.
18 Dec -20 Near predicted monthly values to 30% depressed
at times.
COMMENT: Summertime sporadic E may affect communications at times.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 14 Dec
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 6.2E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.0E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.60E+04 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A2.6
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 14 Dec
Speed: 268 km/sec Density: 2.4 p/cc Temp: 17100 K Bz: 3 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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