[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 14 December 09

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Dec 15 10:37:35 EST 2009


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 14/2330Z DECEMBER 2009 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 14 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 15 DECEMBER - 17 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: ** YELLOW **
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 14 Dec:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 14 Dec:  79/19

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             15 Dec             16 Dec             17 Dec
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    80/20              82/23              84/26

COMMENT: A number of small, B-class events were observed over 
the past 24 hours. Region 1035 (N31 E07) was numbered. The background 
x-ray flux remains somewhat elevated with the slight possibility 
of a C-class x-ray event. The solar wind speed remained below 
300 km/s over the past 24 hours. The interplanetary magnetic 
field showed a prolonged period of southward Bz to ~ -7 nT from 
02-09 UT. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 14 Dec: Mostly quiet. Isolated
unsettled to active periods at higher latitudes in the first half of
the 24 hours. 

Estimated Indices 14 Dec :  A   K           
   Australian Region       5   23111112
      Darwin               5   22111122
      Townsville           5   22111212
      Learmonth            5   22111221
      Canberra             2   12100001
      Hobart               4   13210101
      Casey(Ant)          11   34-22222
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 14 Dec : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice_Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gnangara             0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart               0   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 14 Dec : A 
           Fredericksburg         4
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 13 Dec :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         1
           Planetary              2   0011 1000     

2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
15 Dec     5    Quiet 
16 Dec     5    Quiet 
17 Dec     5    Quiet 

COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity in the first half of yesterday 
is likely due to the prolonged period of southward IMF Bz noted 
above. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
14 Dec      Fair-normal    Fair-normal    Fair-normal    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
15 Dec      Fair-normal    Fair-normal    Fair-normal   
16 Dec      Fair-normal    Fair-normal    Fair-normal   
17 Dec      Fair-normal    Fair-normal    Fair-normal   

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

Date   T index
14 Dec   -24

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values with enhancements to 30%
      14-19 UT.
   Niue Island Region:
      Depressed by 15% with depressions to 40% 06-16 UT.
      Night spread F observed. Sporadic E observed 06-09
      UT.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values to 15% depressed during
      the day with depressions to 30% at night. Sporadic E
      observed at times between 08 and 23 UT.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values with depressions
      to 30% at times. Sporadic E observed mostly from
      00-02, 07-23 UT.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values to 25% depressed.

Predicted Monthly T index for December:   1

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
15 Dec   -20    Near predicted monthly values to 30% depressed 
                at times. 
16 Dec   -15    Near predicted monthly values to 30% depressed 
                at times. 
17 Dec   -15    Near predicted monthly values to 30% depressed 
                at times. 

COMMENT: Summertime sporadic E may affect communications at times. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 13 Dec
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   4.4E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  2.1E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.20E+04   (normal fluence)   
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A1.2

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 13 Dec
Speed: 266 km/sec  Density:    3.2 p/cc  Temp:    11600 K  Bz:  -3 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------


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