[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 13 December 09
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Dec 14 10:19:09 EST 2009
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 13/2330Z DECEMBER 2009 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 13 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 14 DECEMBER - 16 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 13 Dec: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 13 Dec: 76/14
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
14 Dec 15 Dec 16 Dec
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 77/16 77/16 77/16
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low over the last 24 hours with
no further activity from region 1034 (N19E17). Baseline X-ray
flux increased in the second half of the UT day. Solar activity
is expected to be Very Low for the next three days, however there
remains a slight chance of a B- or C-class flare from AR1034,
a bxo beta spot group. The solar wind speed dropped back to 250km/s
over the UT day, and the IMF was persistently southwards (~-4nT)
for most of the day.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 13 Dec: Quiet
Estimated Indices 13 Dec : A K
Australian Region 3 12111111
Darwin 3 21111012
Townsville 5 21112122
Learmonth 3 11111111
Canberra 1 01001001
Hobart 3 02112011
Casey(Ant) 7 23321111
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 13 Dec :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 13 Dec : A
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 12 Dec : A K
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 1 0000 0001
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
14 Dec 3 Quiet
15 Dec 1 Quiet
16 Dec 1 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity was Quiet over the last 24 hours,
with surprisingly little response at high latitudes to the
persistently southwards IMF. Expect mostly Quiet conditions
next three days.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
13 Dec Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
14 Dec Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
15 Dec Normal Normal Normal
16 Dec Normal Normal Normal
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
13 Dec -26
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 30% during local day,
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 25% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for December: 1
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
14 Dec -15 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
15 Dec -15 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
16 Dec -20 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
COMMENT: Increased solar activity over the last 24 hours resulted
in a strengthening of ionospheric support for HF. However MUFs
remained depressed during the day at most locations and near
predicted monthly values overnight. The equatorial regions were
variable. HF conditions were fair to normal at most locations,
although some periods of sporadic E remained. Stronger solar
activity should result in MUFs nearer to predicted monthly values
over the next 3 days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 12 Dec
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 5.7E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.0E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.90E+04 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: 7.044E-09
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 12 Dec
Speed: 283 km/sec Density: 3.4 p/cc Temp: 20400 K Bz: 2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
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