[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 12 December 09

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Dec 13 10:15:51 EST 2009


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 12/2330Z DECEMBER 2009 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 12 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 13 DECEMBER - 15 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 12 Dec:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 12 Dec:  75/13


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             13 Dec             14 Dec             15 Dec
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    75/13              75/13              75/13

COMMENT: Solar activity was very low over the last 24 hours with 
no further activity from region 1034 (N20E30). Activity is expected 
to be Very Low for the next three days, however there remains 
a slight chance of a B- or C-class flare from AR1034. The solar 
wind speed increased slightly over the UT day to 300km/s along 
with some larger IMF fluctuations late in the UT day. 

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 12 Dec: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 12 Dec :  A   K           
   Australian Region       4   11211122
      Darwin               5   11211123
      Townsville           6   21211123
      Learmonth            5   11222122
      Canberra             1   00100012
      Hobart               3   00211112
      Casey(Ant)           7   22-22222
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 12 Dec : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice_Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gnangara             0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart               0   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 12 Dec : A 
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 11 Dec :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         0
           Planetary              0   0000 0000     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
13 Dec     3    Quiet 
14 Dec     1    Quiet 
15 Dec     1    Quiet 

COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity was mostly Quiet over the last 
24 hours, with some isolated Unsettled conditions late in the 
UT day due to solar wind/IMF fluctuations. Expect mostly Quiet 
conditions next three days. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
12 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal         
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
13 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal
14 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal
15 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
12 Dec   -33

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Depressed by 20% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Depressed by 30% during local day,
      Depressed by 20% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day,
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for December:   1

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
13 Dec   -25    near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                20% 
14 Dec   -25    near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                20% 
15 Dec   -20    near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                20% 

COMMENT: Increased solar and geomagnetic activity over the last 
24 hours resulted in a strengthening of ionospheric support for 
HF. HF conditions also improved over that of the previous few 
days. MUFs however remain consistently depressed relative to 
expected monthly values and this is expected to persist for at 
least the next 3 days due to seasonal conditions and low solar 
activity. There may be some gradual improvement as solar active 
regions currently near the east limb rotate further onto the 
visible disk, however these active regions are weak and likely 
to provide only slight improvement to ionospheric conditions. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 11 Dec
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   3.8E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  2.0E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.30E+04   (normal fluence)   
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A1.0

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 11 Dec
Speed: 263 km/sec  Density:    1.7 p/cc  Temp:    17300 K  Bz:   1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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