[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 19 August 09
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Aug 20 09:32:06 EST 2009
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 19/2330Z AUGUST 2009 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 19 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 20 AUGUST - 22 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 19 Aug: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 19 Aug: 67/0
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
20 Aug 21 Aug 22 Aug
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 68/2 68/2 68/2
COMMENT: The visible solar disc is spotless. Solar wind speed
increased steadily over the second half of the UT day to around
450 km/s at time of report issue.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 19 Aug: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 19 Aug : A K
Australian Region 8 12123232
Darwin 7 21123231
Townsville 8 12223232
Learmonth 15 -3------
Camden - --------
Canberra 6 01023232
Hobart 8 10123332
Casey(Ant) 8 22222232
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 19 Aug :
Darwin 2 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 19 Aug : A
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 12
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 18 Aug : A K
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 4 1100 1111
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
20 Aug 8 Quiet to Unsettled
21 Aug 5 Quiet
22 Aug 5 Quiet
COMMENT: Observed regional geomagnetic conditions were quiet
for the first half of the UT day, becoming unsettled later mainly
at high latitudes due to a recurrent coronal hole wind stream.
Expect unsettled conditions day one (20 Aug), becoming generally
quiet days two and three.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
19 Aug Fair-normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
20 Aug Normal Normal Normal-Fair
21 Aug Normal Normal Normal
22 Aug Normal Normal Normal
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
19 Aug 0
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 30% during local day,
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for August: 1
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
20 Aug 0 Near predicted monthly values
21 Aug 0 Near predicted monthly values
22 Aug -5 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Daytime depressions observed Equatorial/N Aus regions.
Periods of sporadic-E conditions observed Niue, Cocos Islands
and Macquarie Island. Expect mostly normal HF conditions next
three days with some disturbance at high latitudes day one due
to elevated geomagnetic activity.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 18 Aug
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.4E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.1E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 8.80E+05 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 18 Aug
Speed: 340 km/sec Density: 5.7 p/cc Temp: 58100 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
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