[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 18 August 09
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Aug 19 09:27:11 EST 2009
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 18/2330Z AUGUST 2009 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 18 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 19 AUGUST - 21 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 18 Aug: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 18 Aug: 67/0
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
19 Aug 20 Aug 21 Aug
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 68/2 68/2 68/2
COMMENT: The visible solar disc is spotless. Solar wind parameters
remained steady over the UT day.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 18 Aug: Quiet
Estimated Indices 18 Aug : A K
Australian Region 3 12110111
Darwin 2 12100011
Townsville 5 22211122
Learmonth 2 22110010
Camden - --------
Canberra 0 02000000
Hobart 2 11110111
Casey(Ant) 5 13211111
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 18 Aug :
Darwin 2 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 18 Aug : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 17 Aug : A K
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 3 1000 1112
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
19 Aug 15 Unsettled to Active
20 Aug 8 Quiet to Unsettled
21 Aug 5 Quiet
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 4 was issued on 17 August and
is current for interval 18-19 August. Solar wind speed remained
steady at around 340 km/s over the UT day. The Bz component of
the IMF settled to mostly neutral values. Resulting geomagnetic
conditions remained at quiet levels. Expect unsettled geomagnetic
conditions day one (Aug 18) with possible active to minor storm
periods at high latitudes. Conditions should decliine to generally
quiet by day three.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
18 Aug Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
19 Aug Normal Normal Normal-Fair
20 Aug Normal Normal Normal-Fair
21 Aug Normal Normal Normal
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
18 Aug -4
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 25% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Scott Base enhanced by 20% over the UT day.
No data available from other stations.
Predicted Monthly T index for August: 1
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
19 Aug -5 Near predicted monthly values
20 Aug 0 Near predicted monthly values
21 Aug 0 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Extended periods of sporadic-E observed at Cocos Islands
and isolated periods Es at Niue Island. Evening spread-F observed
at Darwin and Norfolk Island. Expect mostly normal HF conditions
next three days with some disturbance at high latitudes due to
elevated geomagnetic activity.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 17 Aug
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.6E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.0E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.40E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 17 Aug
Speed: 286 km/sec Density: 3.1 p/cc Temp: 12100 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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IPS Radio and Space Services email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au
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