[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 17 August 09
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Aug 18 09:39:13 EST 2009
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 17/2330Z AUGUST 2009 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 17 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 18 AUGUST - 20 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 17 Aug: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 17 Aug: 68/2
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
18 Aug 19 Aug 20 Aug
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 68/2 68/2 68/2
COMMENT: The visible solar disc is spotless. Solar wind speed
increased steadily over the second half of the UT day indicating
onset of the anticipated coronal hole wind stream.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 17 Aug: Quiet
Estimated Indices 17 Aug : A K
Australian Region 2 11101111
Darwin 2 11101111
Townsville 6 12212222
Learmonth - --------
Camden - --------
Canberra 0 00000000
Hobart 2 11101111
Casey(Ant) 4 22111121
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 17 Aug :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 17 Aug : A
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 16 Aug : A K
Fredericksburg 0
Planetary 3 1000 1112
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
18 Aug 12 Unsettled. Possible active to minor storm periods.
19 Aug 15 Active
20 Aug 7 Quiet to unsettled
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 4 was issued on 17 August and
is current for interval 18-19 August. Solar wind speed increased
steadily over the second half of the UT day Aug 17. Expect unsettled
geomagnetic conditions day one (Aug 18) with possible active
to minor storm periods at high latitudes. Similar conditions
will prevail day two becoming quiet to unsettled day three.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
17 Aug Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
18 Aug Normal Normal Normal-Fair
19 Aug Normal Normal Normal-Fair
20 Aug Normal Normal Normal
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
17 Aug -2
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values,
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day,
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for August: 1
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
18 Aug -5 Near predicted monthly values
19 Aug -5 Near predicted monthly values
20 Aug 0 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Variable HF conditions observed at N and central Aus
latitudes. Sporadic-E observed at some stations. Expect mostly
normal HF conditions next three days with some disturbance at
high latitudes due to elevated geomagnetic activity.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 16 Aug
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.3E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.2E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.90E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 16 Aug
Speed: 271 km/sec Density: 1.9 p/cc Temp: NA K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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