[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 20 August 09

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Aug 21 09:42:47 EST 2009


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 20/2330Z AUGUST 2009 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 20 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 21 AUGUST - 23 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 20 Aug:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 20 Aug:  68/2


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             21 Aug             22 Aug             23 Aug
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    68/2               68/2               68/2
COMMENT: The visible solar disc is spotless. Solar wind speed 
increased steadily over the UT day to around 550 km/s at time 
of report issue. 




-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 20 Aug: Quiet to Unsettled 

Estimated Indices 20 Aug :  A   K           
   Australian Region       8   33222122
      Darwin               7   33221022
      Townsville           9   33222222
      Learmonth            -   --------
      Camden               -   --------
      Canberra             6   23222011
      Hobart               8   23223122
      Casey(Ant)          11   43322222
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 20 Aug : 
      Darwin               4   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth           NA
      Alice_Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gnangara             8   (Quiet)
      Canberra             4   (Quiet)
      Hobart               8   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 20 Aug : A 
           Fredericksburg         9
           Planetary              7                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 19 Aug :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         8
           Planetary             10   1013 3234     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
21 Aug     6    Quiet to unsettled 
22 Aug     5    Quiet 
23 Aug     5    Quiet 
COMMENT: Solar wind speed remains elevated under the influence 
of a coronal hole wind stream. The Bz component of the IMF has 
remained mostly neutral limiting geomagnetic activity to isolated 
unsettled intervals at low to mid latitudes. Active to minor 
storm periods were observed at high latitudes. Expect continuing 
unsettled periods day one with conditions tending to quiet days 
two and three. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
20 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
21 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal
22 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal
23 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
20 Aug     6

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 20% during local day,
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 30% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for August:   1

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
21 Aug     0    Near predicted monthly values 
22 Aug    -5    Near predicted monthly values 
23 Aug    -5    Near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: Extended periods of sporadic-E conditions at Cocos and 
Niue islands local day. Extended periods of spread-F conditions 
at Brisbane and Norfolk Island local evening/night. Weak ionosphere 
generally in Antarctic region with periods of sporadic-E at Casey. 
Expect mostly normal HF conditions next three days with some 
disturbance at higher latitudes day one. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 19 Aug
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   7.1E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  2.1E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.70E+05   (normal fluence)   
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A1.0

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 19 Aug
Speed: 352 km/sec  Density:    8.7 p/cc  Temp:    62000 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------


IPS Radio and Space Services        email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au 
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,
confidential or copyright information.  The views expressed in 
this message are those of the individual sender, unless 
specifically stated to be the views of IPS.  If you are not 
the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately 
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments. 
Occasionally IPS sends email promoting IPS products and 
services to its mailing list customers. If you do not wish to 
receive this promotional material please email 
no-spam at ips.gov.au with the subject header:UNSUBSCRIBE"





More information about the ips-dsgr mailing list