[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 14 August 09

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 14/2330Z AUGUST 2009 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 14 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 15 AUGUST - 17 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 14 Aug:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 14 Aug:  68/2

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             15 Aug             16 Aug             17 Aug
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    67/0               67/0               67/0

COMMENT: The visible solar disc is spotless. The solar wind speed 
ranged from 340 to 300 km/s and is expected to remain in this 
range or slightly above for the next 3 days. 

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 14 Aug: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 14 Aug :  A   K           
   Australian Region       2   11111011
      Darwin               1   11100001
      Townsville           5   12211122
      Canberra             0   00000000
      Hobart               2   11111001
      Casey(Ant)           4   12211111
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 14 Aug : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Alice_Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gnangara             0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart               0   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 14 Aug : A 
           Fredericksburg         2
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 13 Aug :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         3
           Planetary              5   2211 2211     

2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
15 Aug     4    Quiet 
16 Aug     4    Quiet 
17 Aug     4    Quiet 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
14 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal         
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
15 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal
16 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal
17 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

Date   T index
14 Aug     9

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 30% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for August:   1

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
15 Aug     1    near predicted monthly values 
16 Aug     1    near predicted monthly values 
17 Aug     1    Near predicted monthly values 

COMMENT: Spread F (Fs) noted at Brisbane and Norfolk Island during 
the local night time hours. Norfolk Island also observed blanketing 
sporadic E (Es) at 1200 to 1300 UT. Casey observed Es from 1300 
to 1800 UT and Cocos Island observed Es from 0700 to 1500 UT. 
Noted Fs at Niue from 0900 to 1500 UT around local midnight hours. 
Expect cases of Es and Fs in the Australian Region over the next 
three days. 

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 13 Aug
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.2E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  2.0E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.40E+06   (normal fluence)   
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A1.0

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 13 Aug
Speed: 348 km/sec  Density:    4.6 p/cc  Temp:    41100 K  Bz:  -1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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