[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 13 August 09

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 13/2330Z AUGUST 2009 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 13 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 14 AUGUST - 16 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 13 Aug:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 13 Aug:  67/0

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             14 Aug             15 Aug             16 Aug
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    67/0               67/0               67/0

COMMENT: The visible solar disc is spotless. The solar wind speed 
ranged from 370 to 325 km/s and is expected to remain in this 
range or slightly above for the next 3 days. 

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 13 Aug: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 13 Aug :  A   K           
   Australian Region       3   11111111
      Darwin               3   12111011
      Townsville           6   22222122
      Canberra             0   10010000
      Hobart               4   11122111
      Casey(Ant)           4   22211111
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 13 Aug : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Alice_Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gnangara             0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart               0   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 13 Aug : A 
           Fredericksburg         6
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 12 Aug :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         2
           Planetary              5   2111 2211     

2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
14 Aug     4    Quiet 
15 Aug     4    Quiet 
16 Aug     4    Quiet 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
13 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal         
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
14 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal
15 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal
16 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

Date   T index
13 Aug     4

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
      Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 25% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 40% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for August:   1

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
14 Aug     1    near predicted monthly values 
15 Aug     1    near predicted monthly values 
16 Aug     1    near predicted monthly values 

COMMENT: Spread F noted at Brisbane, Darwin, and Norfolk Island 
during the local night time hours. Observed Sporadic E at Sydney 
from 1400 to 1800 UT and at Niue through out the UT day. Cocos 
Island showed depressions up to 30% during the local day. Expect 
occasional spread F and sporadic E in the Australian Region over 
the next three days. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 12 Aug
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   2.1E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  2.0E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.50E+06   (normal fluence)   
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A1.0

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 12 Aug
Speed: 362 km/sec  Density:    6.5 p/cc  Temp:    43700 K  Bz:  -1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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