[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 15 August 09
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Aug 16 09:47:51 EST 2009
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 15/2330Z AUGUST 2009 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 15 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 16 AUGUST - 18 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 15 Aug: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 15 Aug: 68/2
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
16 Aug 17 Aug 18 Aug
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 68/2 68/2 68/2
COMMENT: The visible solar disc is spotless. The solar wind speed
ranged from 310 to 280 km/s and is expected to remain in this
range or slightly above for the next 2 days. However, expect
the solar wind to increase to over 400 late in the UT day, 18
August due to a recurrent coronal hole.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 15 Aug: Quiet
Estimated Indices 15 Aug : A K
Australian Region 2 11111101
Darwin 1 11100001
Townsville 5 22211122
Canberra 0 00000000
Hobart 2 11111101
Casey(Ant) 3 12211101
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 15 Aug :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 15 Aug : A
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 14 Aug : A K
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 4 1211 1111
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
16 Aug 4 Quiet
17 Aug 4 Quiet
18 Aug 12 Unsettled
COMMENT: Expect quiet levels of geomagnetic activity for the
next two days. However, late in the UT day on 18 August expect
an increase in activity to unsettled levels and possible active
levels at higher latitudes.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
15 Aug Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
16 Aug Normal Normal Normal
17 Aug Normal Normal Normal
18 Aug Normal Normal Normal-Fair
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
15 Aug 9
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values,
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day,
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for August: 1
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
16 Aug 1 near predicted monthly values
17 Aug 1 Near predicted monthly values
18 Aug 1 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Spread F (Fs) noted at Norfolk Island during the local
night time hours and at Darwin during late local night early
morning hours. Sporadic E (Es) was observed at Cocos Island and
Canberra during the early local night time hours and at Sydney
during evening hours. Niue observed Es mainly late in the local
day. Casey observed Es from 0600 to 0800 UT. Expect cases of
Es and Fs in the Australian Region over the next three days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 14 Aug
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.0E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.0E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.80E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 14 Aug
Speed: 322 km/sec Density: 2.8 p/cc Temp: 33600 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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