[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 04 August 09

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Aug 5 09:51:45 EST 2009


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 04/2330Z AUGUST 2009 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 04 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 05 AUGUST - 07 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 04 Aug:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 04 Aug:  66/0


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             05 Aug             06 Aug             07 Aug
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    67/0               67/0               67/0
COMMENT: The visible disc is spotless. The solar wind speed Vsw 
was average over the UT day, declining from 380 to 330km/sec 
but increasing again past 370 km/sec by the end of the day. IMF 
Bz was mildly southwards for most of the day, encouraging merging 
with the geomagnetic field. Vsw expected to remain average for 
the next day and increase on day two due to a recurrent coronal 
hole. The STEREO-B spacecraft, already in the coronal hole high-speed 
solar wind stream shows widely scattered Vsw but the average 
is not far above 400km/sec. 




-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 04 Aug: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 04 Aug :  A   K           
   Australian Region       3   12101111
      Darwin               3   12101112
      Townsville           6   22212122
      Learmonth            4   22111121
      Camden               3   -2102111
      Canberra             2   12101011
      Hobart               3   12102111
      Casey(Ant)           3   1-211111
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 04 Aug : 
      Darwin               2   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice_Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gnangara             0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart               0   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 04 Aug : A 
           Fredericksburg         3
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 03 Aug :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         7
           Planetary             10   3332 2221     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
05 Aug     5    Quiet 
06 Aug     8    Quiet to Unsettled 
07 Aug     4    Quiet 
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity is expected to remain at mostly 
Quiet levels for the next day at mid and low latitudes. Expect 
a increase in geomagnetic activity on day two (06 August UT) 
with Unsettled conditions, due to a moderate increase in the 
solar wind speed from a recurrent coronal hole. Polar latitudes 
only reached Unsettled levels near the auroral oval, despite 
prolonged IMF Bz southwards, as magnitude was mostly less than 
2nT. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
04 Aug      Normal-fair    Normal         Normal         
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
05 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal
06 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
07 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
04 Aug     6

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for August:   1

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
05 Aug     5    near predicted monthly values 
06 Aug     8    0 to 10% above predicted monthly values 
07 Aug     3    Near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: HF conditions are expected to remain mostly normal in 
most parts of Aus/NZ regions for the next day (05 August). Onset 
of Unsettled geomagnetic activity from a recurrent coronal hole 
on 06 August (UT) will probably raise MUFs slightly. Strong 
nightime spread-F was observed at sub-equatorial latitudes. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 03 Aug
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.7E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  2.0E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.30E+06   (normal fluence)   
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A1.0

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 03 Aug
Speed: 376 km/sec  Density:    6.5 p/cc  Temp:    56800 K  Bz:  -1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------


IPS Radio and Space Services        email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au 
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,
confidential or copyright information.  The views expressed in 
this message are those of the individual sender, unless 
specifically stated to be the views of IPS.  If you are not 
the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately 
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments. 
Occasionally IPS sends email promoting IPS products and 
services to its mailing list customers. If you do not wish to 
receive this promotional material please email 
no-spam at ips.gov.au with the subject header:UNSUBSCRIBE"





More information about the ips-dsgr mailing list