[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 03 August 09
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Aug 4 09:01:25 EST 2009
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 03/2330Z AUGUST 2009 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 03 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 04 AUGUST - 06 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 03 Aug: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 03 Aug: 67/0
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
04 Aug 05 Aug 06 Aug
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 68/2 68/2 68/2
COMMENT: The visible disc is spotless. The solar wind speed Vsw
was average at 360-400km/s and IMF Bz was mildly southwards for
most of the day, encouraging merging with the geomagnetic field.
Vsw expected to remain average for the next 1-2 days and increase
to just over 400 km/s on day three due to a recurrent coronal
hole.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 03 Aug: Quiet
Estimated Indices 03 Aug : A K
Australian Region 4 21211111
Darwin 3 21111111
Townsville 6 22212222
Learmonth 4 22221110
Camden 2 11211000
Canberra 1 11110000
Hobart 4 21221111
Casey(Ant) 5 22221111
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 03 Aug :
Darwin 4 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 2 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 12 (Quiet)
Canberra 6 (Quiet)
Hobart 10 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 03 Aug : A
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 7
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 02 Aug : A K
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 3 1000 1122
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
04 Aug 5 Quiet
05 Aug 5 Quiet
06 Aug 8 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity is expected to remain at mostly
Quiet levels for the next 1-2 days at mid and low latitudes.
Expect a increase in geomagnetic activity on day two or three
(05 or 06 August UT) with Unsettled conditions, due to a moderate
increase in the solar wind speed from a recurrent coronal hole.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
03 Aug Fair-poor Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
04 Aug Normal Normal Normal
05 Aug Normal Normal Normal
06 Aug Normal Normal Normal-Fair
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
03 Aug 4
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values,
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 35% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for August: 1
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
04 Aug 5 near predicted monthly values
05 Aug 5 near predicted monthly values
06 Aug 8 0 to 10% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: HF conditions are expected to remain mostly normal in
most parts of Aus/NZ regions for the next 1-2 days (04 to 05
August). Onset of Unsettled geomagnetic activity from a recurrent
coronal hole on 05-06 August (UT) will probably raise MUFs slightly.
Very strong nightime spread-F was observed at low latitudes (DWN,
LEA) and the reason is not readily apparent but maybe due to
an inner magnetosphere disturbance observed yesterday on the
GOES spacecraft.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 02 Aug
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.7E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.0E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.80E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 02 Aug
Speed: 364 km/sec Density: 4.4 p/cc Temp: 48300 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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