[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 05 August 09

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Aug 6 09:55:25 EST 2009


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 05/2330Z AUGUST 2009 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 05 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 06 AUGUST - 08 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 05 Aug:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 05 Aug:  66/0


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             06 Aug             07 Aug             08 Aug
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    67/0               67/0               67/0
COMMENT: The visible disc is spotless. The solar wind speed Vsw 
was average over the UT day, around 380 km/sec. Vsw expected 
to remain average for the next day and increase on day two due 
to a recurrent coronal hole. IMF Bz was southwards for an extended 
period (02-08UT) early in the day, encouraging merging with the 
geomagnetic field, but then swung strongly northwards and has 
unusually remained in the +5-10nT range since 08UT, shutting 
off geomagnetic merging. 




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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 05 Aug: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 05 Aug :  A   K           
   Australian Region       4   12222101
      Darwin               5   12222102
      Townsville           7   12232212
      Learmonth            6   22232101
      Camden               3   11122101
      Canberra             2   01122001
      Hobart               5   11133101
      Casey(Ant)           5   22222111
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 05 Aug : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice_Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gnangara             0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart               0   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 05 Aug : A 
           Fredericksburg         7
           Planetary              7                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 04 Aug :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         4
           Planetary              4   1110 1011     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
06 Aug     8    Quiet to Unsettled 
07 Aug     4    Quiet 
08 Aug     4    Quiet 
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity is expected to slightly elevate 
from Quiet to sporadic Unsettled levels in the next day at mid 
and low latitudes, due to a moderate increase in the solar wind 
speed from a recurrent coronal hole. Polar latitudes reached 
Active levels near the auroral oval early in the UT day due to 
a prolonged IMF Bz southwards. However the IMF has been strongly 
northwards (+5-10nT) since 08UT, and if it remains so during 
the expected enhanced solar wind speed, it may mute the response 
of the geomagnetic field as the solar IMF and geomagnetic field 
will not be merged. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
05 Aug      Normal-fair    Normal         Normal         
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
06 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
07 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal
08 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
05 Aug    12

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
      Enhanced by 25% during local day,
      Enhanced by 65% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 25% during local day,
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 40% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for August:   1

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
06 Aug    10    0 to 10% above predicted monthly values 
07 Aug     5    Near predicted monthly values 
08 Aug     5    Near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: MUFs are expected to be slightly elevated in most parts 
of Aus/NZ regions for the next day Onset of Unsettled geomagnetic 
activity from a recurrent coronal hole on 05-06 August (UT) will 
probably raise MUFs slightly. Nightime spread-F was observed 
at sub-equatorial latitudes (Learmonth, Darwin, Brisbane) and 
more strongly at equatorial latitudes (Cocos Is, Niue). A very 
large transient MUF enhancement was observed at Niue pre-dusk 
(03-06UT). Some mid-latitude stations also observed strong spread-F 
post dusk (Hobart) and near dawn (Sydney). Es was observed near 
dusk at Brisbane and late afternoon at Learmonth. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 04 Aug
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.2E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  2.0E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.30E+06   (normal fluence)   
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A1.0

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 04 Aug
Speed: 351 km/sec  Density:    6.3 p/cc  Temp:    21600 K  Bz:  -1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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IPS Radio and Space Services        email: asfc at ips.gov.au
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Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au 
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