[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 18 April 09

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Apr 19 09:21:35 EST 2009


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 18/2330Z APRIL 2009 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 18 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 19 APRIL - 21 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 18 Apr:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 18 Apr:  70/5

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             19 Apr             20 Apr             21 Apr
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    70/5               70/5               70/5

COMMENT: The visible solar disk remains spotless. The solar wind 
speed increased from 440 to 540 km/s over the last 24 hours and 
is presently 520 km/s. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 18 Apr: Quiet to Unsettled 

Estimated Indices 18 Apr :  A   K           
   Australian Region       7   23222221
      Darwin               6   23212211
      Townsville           9   23322222
      Learmonth            9   23322321
      Canberra             4   12211112
      Hobart               7   23221221
      Casey(Ant)          10   34232211
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 18 Apr : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice_Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gnangara             0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart               2   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 18 Apr : A 
           Fredericksburg         7
           Planetary              7                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 17 Apr :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         4
           Planetary              5   2001 2112     

2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
19 Apr     8    Quiet to Unsettled 
20 Apr     8    Quiet to Unsettled 
21 Apr     8    Quiet to Unsettled 

COMMENT: Due to slightly elevated solar wind speed expect quiet 
to unsettled geomagnetic conditions for the next three days. During 
03-05 UT 18 April the Bz component of the interplanetary magnetic 
field reached -5nT which resulted in reconnection and a short 
period of active levels at high latitudes. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
18 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
19 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
20 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
21 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

Date   T index
18 Apr     3

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Depressed by 20% during local day. 
      Near predicted monthly values during local night
      when ionogram trace visible.

Predicted Monthly T index for April:   3

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
19 Apr     5    near predicted monthly values 
20 Apr     5    Near predicted monthly values 
21 Apr     5    Near predicted monthly values 

COMMENT: Noted sporadic E late in the local day at Niue. Isolated 
cases of sporadic E at Cocos Island and Hobart showed blanketing 
sporadic E between 11-18 UT. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 17 Apr
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   6.3E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.9E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 6.20E+06   (normal fluence)   
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A1.0

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 17 Apr
Speed: 435 km/sec  Density:    1.4 p/cc  Temp:   108000 K  Bz:   2 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------


IPS Radio and Space Services        email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au 
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,
confidential or copyright information.  The views expressed in 
this message are those of the individual sender, unless 
specifically stated to be the views of IPS.  If you are not 
the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately 
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments. 
Occasionally IPS sends email promoting IPS products and 
services to its mailing list customers. If you do not wish to 
receive this promotional material please email 
no-spam at ips.gov.au with the subject header:UNSUBSCRIBE"





More information about the ips-dsgr mailing list