[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 19 April 09

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Apr 20 09:27:13 EST 2009


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 19/2330Z APRIL 2009 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 19 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 20 APRIL - 22 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 19 Apr:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 19 Apr:  70/5

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             20 Apr             21 Apr             22 Apr
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    70/5               70/5               70/5
COMMENT: Solar activity remained at very low levels on 
19 April. The visible solar disk remains spotless. The 
solar wind speed stayed between 440 and 470 km/s almost 
the whole day today. The Bz components stayed slightly 
positive (upto around +3nT) for most parts of the UT day 
today. Solar wind stream may weaken over the next 24 hours 
due to diminishing of a coronal hole effect. Solar activity 
is expected to stay at very low levels for the next 3 days. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 19 Apr: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 19 Apr :  A   K           
   Australian Region       4   22211111
      Darwin               3   22200011
      Townsville           7   22222222
      Learmonth            3   22201011
      Camden               -   --------
      Canberra             2   22001001
      Hobart               2   22101001
      Casey(Ant)           9   24322111
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 19 Apr : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice_Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Camden              NA
      Gnangara            17   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart               4   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 19 Apr : A 
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 18 Apr :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         8
           Planetary              8   2331 2212     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
20 Apr     6    Quiet 
21 Apr     7    Quiet 
22 Apr     6    Quiet 
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity is expected to stay mostly at 
quiet levels for the next three days. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
19 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal         
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
20 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal
21 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal
22 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal
COMMENT: HF conditions are expected to stay mostly normal 
on most locations for the next three days. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

Date   T index
19 Apr     1

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for April:   3

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
20 Apr     1    Near predicted monthly values 
21 Apr     1    Near predicted monthly values 
22 Apr     1    Near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: HF conditions are exptected to stay mostly normal 
around Aus/NZ regions for the next three days. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 18 Apr
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   3.8E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.9E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.40E+06   (normal fluence)   
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A1.0

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 18 Apr
Speed: 489 km/sec  Density:    0.6 p/cc  Temp:   116000 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------


IPS Radio and Space Services        email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au 
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