[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 17 April 09

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 17/2330Z APRIL 2009 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 17 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 18 APRIL - 20 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 17 Apr:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 17 Apr:  70/5

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             18 Apr             19 Apr             20 Apr
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    70/5               70/5               70/5

COMMENT: The visible solar disk remains spotless. The solar wind 
speed ranged between 360 and 480 km/s over the last 24 hours 
and is presently 440 km/s. SOHO LASCO C3 image shows a CME in 
progress on the east limb that commenced at ~1542UT. It will 
not likely be geo-effective. 

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 17 Apr: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 17 Apr :  A   K           
   Australian Region       5   21221212
      Darwin               5   21221112
      Townsville           7   22222222
      Learmonth            5   22221202
      Canberra             3   11121102
      Hobart               3   11121102
      Casey(Ant)           7   2-321212
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 17 Apr : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice_Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gnangara            16   (Quiet)
      Canberra             4   (Quiet)
      Hobart               8   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 17 Apr : A 
           Fredericksburg         3
           Planetary              6                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 16 Apr :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         3
           Planetary              6   1221 1213     

2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
18 Apr     4    Quiet 
19 Apr     4    Quiet 
20 Apr     7    Quiet 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
17 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal         
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
18 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal
19 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal
20 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

Date   T index
17 Apr     8

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Variable conditions during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for April:   3

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
18 Apr     5    near predicted monthly values 
19 Apr     5    near predicted monthly values 
20 Apr     5    Near predicted monthly values 

COMMENT: Noted sporadic E early in the local night at Niue and 
late day to early evening at Norfolk island. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 16 Apr
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   6.6E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.9E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.60E+07   (normal fluence)   
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 3%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A1.0

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 16 Apr
Speed: 315 km/sec  Density:    2.3 p/cc  Temp:    23600 K  Bz:  -2 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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