[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 16 April 09
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Apr 17 09:45:17 EST 2009
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 16/2330Z APRIL 2009 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 16 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 17 APRIL - 19 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 16 Apr: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 16 Apr: 70/5
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
17 Apr 18 Apr 19 Apr
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 70/5 70/5 70/5
COMMENT: Solar activity remained at very low levels over the
last 24 hours. The visible solar disk remains spotless. At
approximately 1600 UT the solar wind speed started to increased,
originally around 300 km/s and is presently 440 km/s. This increase
is due to a small recurrent coronal hole. The Bz component of the
interplanetary magnetic field was mostly southward and remained
between 0 and -5nT, until the coronal hole effect, during which it
went northward staying below 8nT.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 16 Apr: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 16 Apr : A K
Australian Region 6 12222311
Darwin 6 12212312
Townsville 8 22222322
Learmonth 7 22222321
Canberra 4 01212211
Hobart 5 12212211
Casey(Ant) 8 23322211
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 16 Apr :
Darwin 2 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 2 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 16 Apr : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 15 Apr : A K
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 3 2100 1111
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
17 Apr 7 Quiet
18 Apr 5 Quiet
19 Apr 3 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity was mostly quiet, but showed unsettled
levels due to a recurrent coronal hole reaching its geo-effective
position. Expect mostly quiet and ocassional unsettled conditions for
the next three days.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
16 Apr Normal Normal Fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
17 Apr Normal Normal Normal
18 Apr Normal Normal Normal
19 Apr Normal Normal Normal
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
16 Apr 11
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values,
Northern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values,
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for April: 3
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
17 Apr 5 near predicted monthly values
18 Apr 5 near predicted monthly values
19 Apr 5 near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: HF conditions across Aust/NZ regions are expected to
remain mostly normal during the next three days with some possibility
of minor degradations in the southern region on 17 April due to
a slight rise in geomagentic activity levels. Darwin showed local
night sporadic E and Niue showed cases of sporadic E in the evening
hours. HF conditions were degraded for Davis, Maquarie Island, and
Mawson during the local night.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 15 Apr
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 5.8E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.0E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.40E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 6%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 15 Apr
Speed: 314 km/sec Density: 1.2 p/cc Temp: 21400 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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IPS Radio and Space Services email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au
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