[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 01 September 08
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Sep 2 09:42:54 EST 2008
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 01/2330Z SEPTEMBER 2008 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 01 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 02 SEPTEMBER - 04 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 01 Sep: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 01 Sep: 66/0
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
02 Sep 03 Sep 04 Sep
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 67/0 67/0 67/0
COMMENT: As expected, the solar activity continued to stay
at very low levels today as well. Solar wind speed decreased
from 360 to 320 km/s during the day and the north-south
component of the interplanetary magnetic field (Bz) stayed
between +/-3nT for most part of the UT day today. There are
no active regions on the visible solar disk. Solar activity
is expected to remain at very low levels for the next 3 days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 01 Sep: Quiet
Estimated Indices 01 Sep : A K
Australian Region 3 22101111
Darwin 4 22111112
Townsville 6 22211222
Learmonth 2 12101110
Camden 2 22000001
Canberra 1 12000001
Hobart 5 32201111
Casey(Ant) 4 22211111
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 01 Sep :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Camden 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 01 Sep : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 31 Aug : A K
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 3 1000 1212
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
02 Sep 3 Quiet
03 Sep 3 Quiet
04 Sep 3 Quiet
COMMENT: The geomagnetic field was quiet over the UT day
today and similar geomagnetic conditions may be expected
for the next three days.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
01 Sep Fair-normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
02 Sep Normal-fair Normal Normal-fair
03 Sep Normal-fair Normal Normal-fair
04 Sep Normal-fair Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Some depressions in MUFs at low and high latitudes
and periods of degradations at high latitudes were observed
over the last 24 hours possibly due to weak ionoshpere as a
result of continued very low level of solar activity. Mid
latitudes mostly showed normal HF conditions. Similar
conditions may be expected for the next 3 days.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
01 Sep -8
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day,
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values,
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Periods of enhancements, minor to mild depressions
and degradations in HF conditions observed.
Predicted Monthly T index for September: 2
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
02 Sep -4 Near predicted monthly values
03 Sep -4 Near predicted monthly values
04 Sep -4 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: HF conditions across the Aus/NZ regions were
mostly normal over the UT day. Similar conditions may
be expected for the next three days as no significant
variation is expected in the ionospheric conditions
during this period.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 31 Aug
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 9.3E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.9E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.50E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 3%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 31 Aug
Speed: 311 km/sec Density: 3.8 p/cc Temp: 36200 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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