[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 02 September 08
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Sep 3 09:47:52 EST 2008
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 02/2330Z SEPTEMBER 2008 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 02 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 03 SEPTEMBER - 05 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 02 Sep: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 02 Sep: 66/0
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
03 Sep 04 Sep 05 Sep
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 67/0 67/0 67/0
COMMENT: As expected, the solar activity continued to stay
at very low levels today as well. Solar wind speed stayed
between 300 and 330 km/s and the north-south component of
the interplanetary magnetic field (Bz) stayed between +/-3nT
for most part of the UT day today. There are no active regions
on the visible solar disk. Solar activity is expected to remain
at very low levels for the next 3 days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 02 Sep: Quiet
Estimated Indices 02 Sep : A K
Australian Region 2 11111001
Darwin 4 12111112
Townsville 5 12221122
Learmonth 1 11110000
Camden 1 11110001
Canberra 1 -1210000
Hobart 2 11121001
Casey(Ant) 4 22221101
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 02 Sep :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Camden 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 02 Sep : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 01 Sep : A K
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 4 1100 1222
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
03 Sep 3 Quiet.
04 Sep 5 Mostly quiet, isolated unsettled periods possible.
05 Sep 10 Mostly unsettled, isolated active periods possible.
COMMENT: The geomagnetic field was quiet over the UT day
today and similar conditions may be expected on 03 September.
Some enhancement in geomagnetic activity may start late on 04
September due to an expected high speed solar wind stream from
a coronal hole around this time. Geomagnetic activity may reach
unsettled and sometimes active levels on 05 September.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
02 Sep Fair-normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
03 Sep Normal-fair Normal Normal-fair
04 Sep Normal-fair Normal Normal-fair
05 Sep Normal-fair Normal-fair Fair
COMMENT: Some depressions in MUFs at low and high latitudes
and periods of degradations at high latitudes were observed
over the last 24 hours possibly due to a weak ionoshpere as
a result of continued very low level of solar activity. Mid
latitudes mostly showed normal HF conditions. Similar
conditions may be expected on 3 and most part of 4 September.
Minor to mild degradations in conditions and MUF depression
may be observed at low and mid-latitudes on 05 September
whereas minor to significant depressions and degradations
may be possible at high latitudes on this day to due an
expected rise in geomagnetic activity starting late on
04 September.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
02 Sep -5
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Almost random periods of depressions, degradations and
enhancements observed.
Predicted Monthly T index for September: 2
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
03 Sep -4 Near predicted monthly values
04 Sep -5 Near predicted monthly values
05 Sep -8 near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to
15%
COMMENT: HF conditions across the Aus/NZ regions were mostly
normal over the UT day. Similar conditions may be expected
for 3 September and most parts of 04 September. Minor to mild
depressiosn in MUFs and degradations in HF condtions may be
observed on 05 September due to an expected rise in geomagnetic
activity level on this day.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 01 Sep
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 9.4E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.8E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 9.40E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 2%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 01 Sep
Speed: 352 km/sec Density: 4.5 p/cc Temp: 41100 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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