[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 31 August 08

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 31/2330Z AUGUST 2008 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 31 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 01 SEPTEMBER - 03 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 31 Aug:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 31 Aug:  67/0


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             01 Sep             02 Sep             03 Sep
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    67/0               67/0               67/0

COMMENT: No active regions on the visible solar disk. Solar wind 
remains slow and the IMF relatively stable. 

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 31 Aug: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 31 Aug :  A   K           
   Australian Region       4   12211211
      Darwin               5   2222111-
      Townsville           9   2332222-
      Learmonth            4   1222111-
      Camden               2   12110101
      Canberra             2   11110201
      Hobart               4   11111221
      Casey(Ant)           4   12211211
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 31 Aug : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice_Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Camden               0   (Quiet)
      Gnangara             0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart               0   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 31 Aug : A 
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 30 Aug :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         2
           Planetary              3   1001 1112     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
01 Sep     3    Quiet 
02 Sep     3    Quiet 
03 Sep     3    Quiet 

COMMENT: The geomagnetic field was quiet over the UT day. Expect 
Quiet conditions next three days. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
31 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal         
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
01 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal
02 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal
03 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
31 Aug    -2

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
      Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Enhanced by 30% over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for August:   2

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
01 Sep    -2    Near predicted monthly values 
02 Sep    -2    Near predicted monthly values 
03 Sep    -2    Near predicted monthly values 

COMMENT: Ionospheric conditions were mostly normal over the UT 
day. Some variable depressions were seen in the Equatorial/N 
Aus regions during the local day. Expect mostly normal conditions 
next three days with minor daytime depressions in the Equatorial/N 
Aus region. 

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 30 Aug
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   8.3E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  2.0E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.30E+07   (normal fluence)   
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 2%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A1.0

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 30 Aug
Speed: 352 km/sec  Density:    3.9 p/cc  Temp:    52400 K  Bz:   1 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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