[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 23 October 08
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Oct 24 10:31:10 EST 2008
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 23/2330Z OCTOBER 2008 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 23 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 24 OCTOBER - 26 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 23 Oct: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 23 Oct: 67/0
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
24 Oct 25 Oct 26 Oct
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 67/0 67/0 67/0
COMMENT: Solar activity remained very low over the last 24
hours. The solar wind speed gradually decreased from 440 km/s
to 360 km/s over the UT day today. The north-south component
of the IMF remained close to the normal value almost the whole
day today. Solar activity is expected to remain at very low
levels for the next 3 days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 23 Oct: Quiet
Estimated Indices 23 Oct : A K
Australian Region 4 22211111
Darwin 4 12111112
Townsville 6 22221---
Learmonth 5 2211----
Camden 2 12210000
Canberra 3 22210000
Hobart 4 22210111
Casey(Ant) 8 34-21111
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 23 Oct :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Camden 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 6 (Quiet)
Canberra 18 (Quiet)
Hobart 2 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 23 Oct : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 22 Oct : A K
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5 0000 1233
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
24 Oct 4 Quiet
25 Oct 4 Quiet
26 Oct 4 Quiet
COMMENT: Mostly quiet geomagnetic conditions were observed
today and similar conditions are expected for the next 3 days.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
23 Oct Fair-normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
24 Oct Fair-normal Normal Normal
25 Oct Fair-normal Normal Normal
26 Oct Fair-normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: As a result of weak ionisation due to continued
very low solar activity, depressions in MUFs were observed
mainly on low latitudes on 23 October. Similar HF conditions
may be expected for the next three days.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
23 Oct -19
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Depressed by 25% during local day,
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day with
some periods of depressions.
Predicted Monthly T index for October: 2
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
24 Oct -16 Mostly near predicted monthly values. Occasional
depressions to 30%.
25 Oct -16 Mostly near predicted monthly values. Occasional
depressions to 30%.
26 Oct -16 Mostly near predicted monthly values. Occasional
depressions to 30%.
COMMENT: Moderate MUF depressions observed in the equatorial/Northern
Australian regions as a result of weak ionisation due to continued
very low solar activity. Similar HF conditions may be expected
for the next three days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 22 Oct
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 8.1E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.9E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.10E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 2%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 22 Oct
Speed: 364 km/sec Density: 1.7 p/cc Temp: 59700 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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