[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 24 October 08
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Oct 25 10:04:19 EST 2008
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 24/2330Z OCTOBER 2008 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 24 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 25 OCTOBER - 27 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 24 Oct: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 24 Oct: 68/2
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
25 Oct 26 Oct 27 Oct
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 67/0 67/0 67/0
COMMENT: Solar wind speed remained steady at nominal levels and
the Bz component of the interplanetary magnetic field remained
mildly northward for most of the UT day.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 24 Oct: Quiet
Estimated Indices 24 Oct : A K
Australian Region 2 12101001
Darwin 3 12102-01
Townsville 5 22211---
Learmonth 2 22001001
Camden 1 12100000
Canberra 1 12100000
Hobart 3 13101000
Casey(Ant) 6 24211011
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 24 Oct :
Darwin NA
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Camden 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 2 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 24 Oct : A
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 23 Oct : A K
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 3 1120 0100
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
25 Oct 4 Quiet
26 Oct 4 Quiet
27 Oct 4 Quiet
COMMENT: Mostly quiet geomagnetic conditions were observed today.
Similar conditions are expected for the next 3 days.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
24 Oct Fair-normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
25 Oct Fair-normal Normal Normal
26 Oct Fair-normal Normal Normal
27 Oct Fair-normal Normal Normal
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
24 Oct -17
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 30% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 30% during local day,
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for October: 2
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
25 Oct -16 Mostly near predicted monthly values. Occasional
depressions to 30%.
26 Oct -16 Mostly near predicted monthly values. Occasional
depressions to 30%.
27 Oct -16 Mostly near predicted monthly values. Occasional
depressions to 30%.
COMMENT: Moderate MUF depressions observed in the Equatorial/Northern
Australian regions as a result of weak ionisation due to continued
very low solar activity. Mild depressions extending at times
to Central Aus latitudes. Similar HF conditions may be expected
for the next three days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 23 Oct
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 6.9E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.8E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.00E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 23 Oct
Speed: 402 km/sec Density: 2.4 p/cc Temp: 69100 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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