[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 22 October 08

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Oct 23 10:12:34 EST 2008


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 22/2330Z OCTOBER 2008 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 22 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 23 OCTOBER - 25 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 22 Oct:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 22 Oct:  68/2


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             23 Oct             24 Oct             25 Oct
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    68/2               68/2               68/2
COMMENT: Solar activity remained very low over the last 24 
hours. The solar wind speed remained close to 350 km/s by 
1500UT and then showed a graudal increase to around 440 
km/s by 2300UT. The north-south component of the IMF remained 
slightly positive by around 1000UT and then showed minor to 
moderate (upto approx. +/-6nT) fluctuations on both sides of 
the normal value during the rest of the UT day today. Solar 
activity is expected to remain at very low levels for the 
next 3 days. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 22 Oct: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 22 Oct :  A   K           
   Australian Region       5   21112222
      Darwin               6   21012223
      Townsville           7   2221232-
      Learmonth            8   22112323
      Camden               4   11002222
      Canberra             3   10002222
      Hobart               4   11002222
      Casey(Ant)          10   32322232
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 22 Oct : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice_Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Camden               0   (Quiet)
      Gnangara             0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart               2   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 22 Oct : A 
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 21 Oct :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         3
           Planetary              3   1201 1101     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
23 Oct     6    Quiet 
24 Oct     5    Quiet 
25 Oct     5    Quiet 
COMMENT: Mostly quiet geomagnetic conditions were observed 
on 22 October and similar conditions are expected for the 
next 3 days. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
22 Oct      Fair-normal    Normal         Fair-normal    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
23 Oct      Fair-normal    Normal         Normal        
24 Oct      Fair-normal    Normal         Normal        
25 Oct      Fair-normal    Normal         Normal        
COMMENT: As a result of weak ionisation due to continued very 
low solar activity, depressions in MUFs were observed mainly 
on low latitudes on 22 October. Similar HF conditions may be 
expected for the next three days. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
22 Oct   -18

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day
      with some periods of depressions,
      Depressed by 30% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 25% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day with
      some periods of depressions.

Predicted Monthly T index for October:   2

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
23 Oct   -14    Mostly near predicted monthly values. Occasional 
                depressions to 30%. 
24 Oct   -14    Mostly near predicted monthly values. Occasional 
                depressions to 30%. 
25 Oct   -14    Mostly near predicted monthly values. Occasional 
                depressions to 30%. 
COMMENT: Moderate MUF depressions observed in the equatorial/Northern 
Australian regions as a result of weak ionisation due to continued 
very low solar activity. Similar HF conditions may be expected 
for the next three days. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 21 Oct
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   6.4E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.8E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 8.40E+06   (normal fluence)   
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 2%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A1.0

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 21 Oct
Speed: 392 km/sec  Density:    1.1 p/cc  Temp:    75000 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------


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