[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 05 October 08

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 05/2330Z OCTOBER 2008 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 05 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 06 OCTOBER - 08 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 05 Oct:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 05 Oct:  67/0

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             06 Oct             07 Oct             08 Oct
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    67/0               67/0               67/0

COMMENT: Active region 1003 does not show spots at this time.
The solar wind decreased from 570 to 480 km/s. The
interplanetary magnetic field fluctuated between +/-3 nT. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 05 Oct: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 05 Oct :  A   K           
   Australian Region       4   21211112
      Darwin               4   21211102
      Townsville           7   222-----
      Learmonth            5   22211112
      Camden               3   11211011
      Canberra             2   11210001
      Hobart               3   11211101
      Casey(Ant)           9   3-322222
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 05 Oct : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice_Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Camden               2   (Quiet)
      Gnangara            13   (Quiet)
      Canberra             2   (Quiet)
      Hobart              19   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 05 Oct : A 
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 04 Oct :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         8
           Planetary             11   3522 2212     

2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
06 Oct     6    Quiet 
07 Oct     4    Quiet 
08 Oct     2    Quiet 

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
05 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
06 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal
07 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal
08 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

Date   T index
05 Oct   -21

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Depressed by 30% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 20% during local day,
      Depressed by 20% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day,
      Depressed by 20% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Depressed by 15% during local day,
      Depressed by 15% during local day.

Predicted Monthly T index for October:   2

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
06 Oct    -5    near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                20% 
07 Oct     0    Near predicted monthly values 
08 Oct     0    Near predicted monthly values 

COMMENT: Noted extended sporadic E at Vanimo between 14-20 UT 
in the early morning hours. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 04 Oct
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.4E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.8E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.50E+08   (moderate fluence)   
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:17%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A1.0

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 04 Oct
Speed: 602 km/sec  Density:    1.1 p/cc  Temp:   125000 K  Bz:   2 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------


IPS Radio and Space Services        email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au 
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,
confidential or copyright information.  The views expressed in 
this message are those of the individual sender, unless 
specifically stated to be the views of IPS.  If you are not 
the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately 
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments. 
Occasionally IPS sends email promoting IPS products and 
services to its mailing list customers. If you do not wish to 
receive this promotional material please email 
no-spam at ips.gov.au with the subject header:UNSUBSCRIBE"