[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 06 October 08

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SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 06/2330Z OCTOBER 2008 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 06 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 07 OCTOBER - 09 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 06 Oct:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 06 Oct:  67/0


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             07 Oct             08 Oct             09 Oct
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    67/0               67/0               67/0
COMMENT: The solar wind decreased from 480 to 420 km/s as the 
coronal hole speed stream declines. The interplanetary magnetic 
field (IMF) was mainly northward, not conducive to merging with 
the geomagnetic field. 




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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 06 Oct: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 06 Oct :  A   K           
   Australian Region       3   22120002
      Darwin               3   22110002
      Townsville           -   --------
      Learmonth            3   22110002
      Camden               2   12120001
      Canberra             3   12120002
      Hobart               2   12120001
      Casey(Ant)           9   33331112
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 06 Oct : 
      Darwin              NA
      Townsville          NA
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice_Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Camden               2   (Quiet)
      Gnangara            NA
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart               2   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 06 Oct : A 
           Fredericksburg         3
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 05 Oct :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         3
           Planetary              4   1221 1101     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
07 Oct     4    Quiet 
08 Oct     5    Quiet 
09 Oct     5    Quiet 


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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
06 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal         
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
07 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal
08 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal
09 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
06 Oct    -8

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Depressed by 20% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for October:   2

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
07 Oct    -5    5 to 15% below predicted monthly values 
08 Oct     0    0 to 10% below predicted monthly values 
09 Oct     0    0 to 10% below predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: Ionosphere recovering from recent effects of solar coronal 
hole high speed wind and resultant geomagnetic disturbance but 
not yet back at normal monthly averages. Predict slightly depressed 
conditions over next three days. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 05 Oct
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.1E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.8E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.00E+08   (moderate fluence)   
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:19%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A1.0

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 05 Oct
Speed: 526 km/sec  Density:    0.8 p/cc  Temp:    99900 K  Bz:   1 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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