[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 04 October 08
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Oct 5 10:03:50 EST 2008
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 04/2330Z OCTOBER 2008 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 04 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 05 OCTOBER - 07 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 04 Oct: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 04 Oct: 67/0
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
05 Oct 06 Oct 07 Oct
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 66/0 66/0 66/0
COMMENT: Learmonth reported a spot group with two spots on 04
October at approximately S20E30. The solar wind decreased from
650 to 580 km/s and is expected to continue to decrease over
the UT day. The interplanetary magnetic field fluctuated between
+/-4 nT with no significant period of southward or the northward
orientation dominating. However ACE showed no data between
approximately 0000 and 0700 UT 04 October. LASCO showed a coronal
ejection on the west limb at commencing at approximately 1218 UT
04 October.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 04 Oct: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 04 Oct : A K
Australian Region 8 23232212
Darwin 8 23232212
Townsville 8 2323221-
Learmonth 11 33242212
Camden 7 2323110-
Canberra 6 23231101
Hobart 8 23233101
Casey(Ant) 13 44-32212
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 04 Oct :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 6 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Camden 34 (Quiet to unsettled)
Gnangara 100 (Minor storm)
Canberra 31 (Quiet to unsettled)
Hobart 45 (Unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 04 Oct : A
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 10
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 03 Oct : A K
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 13 3333 3223
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
05 Oct 10 Quiet to Unsettled
06 Oct 6 Quiet
07 Oct 4 Quiet
COMMENT: Unsettled conditions are expected for today 05 October
followed by quiet conditions for the next three days.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
04 Oct Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
05 Oct Normal Normal Normal-Fair
06 Oct Normal Normal Normal
07 Oct Normal Normal Normal
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
04 Oct -24
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day,
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day,
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed by 20% during local day,
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Predicted Monthly T index for October: 2
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
05 Oct -15 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
06 Oct 0 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
07 Oct 0 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: There is likely to be mild depressions in the South
Australian and Antarctic regions due to geomagnetic activity.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 03 Oct
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 4.2E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.8E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.60E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:14%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 03 Oct
Speed: 662 km/sec Density: 2.1 p/cc Temp: 160000 K Bz: 2 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
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