[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 03 October 08
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Oct 4 09:19:48 EST 2008
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 03/2330Z OCTOBER 2008 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 03 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 04 OCTOBER - 06 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 03 Oct: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 03 Oct: 67/0
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
04 Oct 05 Oct 06 Oct
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 66/0 66/0 66/0
COMMENT: The visible solar disk is spotless at this time. The
solar wind ranged between 600 and 700 km/s and is expected to
return to normal levels on 06 October. The interplanetary magnetic
field fluctuated between +/-5 nT with no significant period of
southward or the northward orientation dominating. Note, ACE
showed no data between approximately 0000 and 0700 UT 03 October.
-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 03 Oct: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 03 Oct : A K
Australian Region 10 22333222
Darwin 12 31234223
Townsville 12 22343322
Learmonth 18 32345323
Camden 9 2-333212
Canberra 10 22333222
Hobart 10 23333212
Casey(Ant) 14 3-433223
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 03 Oct :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 2 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Camden 47 (Unsettled)
Gnangara 75 (Active)
Canberra 48 (Unsettled)
Hobart 35 (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 03 Oct : A
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 12
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 02 Oct : A K
Fredericksburg 11
Planetary 12 2224 4232
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
04 Oct 10 Quiet to Unsettled
05 Oct 10 Quiet to Unsettled
06 Oct 6 Quiet
COMMENT: Unsettled conditions are expected for the next two days
with isolated cases of active storm levels possible.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
03 Oct Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
04 Oct Normal Normal Normal-Fair
05 Oct Normal Normal Normal-Fair
06 Oct Normal Normal Normal
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
03 Oct -16
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day,
Depressed by 35% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 25% during local day,
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day,
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Predicted Monthly T index for October: 2
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
04 Oct -5 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
05 Oct -5 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
06 Oct 0 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
COMMENT: There is likely to be mild depressions in the South
Australian and Antarctic regions due to geomagnetic activity,
as well as mild depressions in the North Australian and Equitorial
regions due to low ionisation levels in the ionosphere. Noted
a extended duration of sporadic E at Vanimo between 15-20 UT,
as well as isolated cases of sporadic E at other stations in
the Australian regions.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 02 Oct
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.5E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.8E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.50E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 0%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 02 Oct
Speed: 652 km/sec Density: 2.0 p/cc Temp: 228000 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------
IPS Radio and Space Services email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,
confidential or copyright information. The views expressed in
this message are those of the individual sender, unless
specifically stated to be the views of IPS. If you are not
the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments.
Occasionally IPS sends email promoting IPS products and
services to its mailing list customers. If you do not wish to
receive this promotional material please email
no-spam at ips.gov.au with the subject header:UNSUBSCRIBE"
More information about the ips-dsgr
mailing list