[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 17 November 08
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Nov 18 10:34:15 EST 2008
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 17/2330Z NOVEMBER 2008 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 17 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 18 NOVEMBER - 20 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 17 Nov: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 17 Nov: 68/2
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
18 Nov 19 Nov 20 Nov
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 68/2 68/2 68/2
COMMENT: Very low solar activity over the last 24 hours. The
visible solar disk is spotless. The solar wind speed has decreased
to normal levels (around 400km/s) and is expected to remain so
for the next three days. The interplanetary magnetic field,
north/south component Bz, was mostly northward. STEREO BEHIND
spacecraft does not show any significant southward oriented Bz.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 17 Nov: Quiet
Estimated Indices 17 Nov : A K
Australian Region 3 22110011
Darwin 1 11100011
Townsville 5 22211121
Learmonth 2 21110011
Camden 1 11100010
Canberra 1 11100010
Hobart 2 22100010
Casey(Ant) 8 33321111
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 17 Nov :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Camden 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 14 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 8 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 17 Nov : A
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 16 Nov : A K
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 8 4410 1001
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
18 Nov 5 Quiet
19 Nov 5 Quiet
20 Nov 2 Quiet
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
17 Nov Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
18 Nov Normal Normal Normal
19 Nov Normal Normal Normal
20 Nov Normal Normal Normal
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
17 Nov -33
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Variable conditions during local day,
Depressed by 30% during local night.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day,
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for November: 3
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
18 Nov -10 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
19 Nov -10 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
20 Nov -10 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 14 was issued on 16 November
and is current for interval 17-18 November. Depressed conditions
expected for equatorial and north Australian regions, particularly
for local night, probable cause very low solar activity.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 16 Nov
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 5.7E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.9E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.50E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 0%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 16 Nov
Speed: 480 km/sec Density: 1.0 p/cc Temp: 129000 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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