[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 18 November 08
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Nov 19 10:18:51 EST 2008
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 18/2330Z NOVEMBER 2008 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 18 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 19 NOVEMBER - 21 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 18 Nov: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 18 Nov: 70/5
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
19 Nov 20 Nov 21 Nov
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 70/5 70/5 70/5
COMMENT: Very low solar activity over the last 24 hours. The
visible solar disk is spotless. The solar wind speed is at normal
levels (just under 400km/s) and is expected to remain so for
the next three days. The interplanetary magnetic field, north/south
component Bz, was mostly northward. STEREO BEHIND spacecraft
does not show any significant southward oriented Bz.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 18 Nov: Quiet
Estimated Indices 18 Nov : A K
Australian Region 2 11100111
Darwin 2 11000112
Townsville 5 122-----
Learmonth 1 10000011
Camden 1 01000011
Canberra 1 11000011
Hobart 2 11100111
Casey(Ant) 7 23221122
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 18 Nov :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Camden 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 18 Nov : A
Fredericksburg 1
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 17 Nov : A K
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 2 2100 0000
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
19 Nov 2 Quiet
20 Nov 2 Quiet
21 Nov 2 Quiet
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
18 Nov Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
19 Nov Normal Normal Normal
20 Nov Normal Normal Normal
21 Nov Normal Normal Normal
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
18 Nov -38
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 30% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day,
Depressed by 30% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day,
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for November: 3
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
19 Nov -20 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
30%
20 Nov -20 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
30%
21 Nov -20 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
30%
COMMENT: Depressed conditions expected for equatorial and north
Australian regions, particularly for local night, probable cause
very low solar activity.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 17 Nov
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 4.0E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.9E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.00E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 0%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 17 Nov
Speed: 407 km/sec Density: 1.0 p/cc Temp: 64400 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
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