[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 16 November 08
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Nov 17 10:52:13 EST 2008
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 16/2330Z NOVEMBER 2008 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 16 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 17 NOVEMBER - 19 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 16 Nov: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 16 Nov: 68/2
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
17 Nov 18 Nov 19 Nov
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 68/2 68/2 68/2
COMMENT: Very Low solar activity over the last 24 hours. Solar
wind speed increased from 400km/s at the beginning of the UT
day to a maximum of 526km/s at 1226UT. Vsw then fell to be 450km/s
at the time of this report. Bz, the north/south component of
interplanetary magnetic field was southward from 0000UT to 0300UT
with a magnitude of ~10nT after which it then decreased to fluctuate
between +/-2nT. Solar activity is expected to remain very low
for the next 3 days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 16 Nov: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 16 Nov : A K
Australian Region 9 33223122
Darwin 8 32223022
Townsville 11 33323222
Learmonth 12 43333112
Camden 7 23223021
Canberra 8 33223021
Hobart 8 33223011
Casey(Ant) 12 4--32123
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 16 Nov :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Camden 10 (Quiet)
Gnangara 12 (Quiet)
Canberra 4 (Quiet)
Hobart 24 (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 16 Nov : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 15 Nov : A K
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 6 2201 2222
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
17 Nov 8 Quiet to Unsettled
18 Nov 5 Quiet
19 Nov 5 Quiet
COMMENT: Quiet to Unsettled conditions observed over the last
24 hours. Mostly Quiet conditions with occasional Unsettled periods
for the next 24 hours followed by Quiet conditions for 18Nov-19Nov.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
16 Nov Normal-fair Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
17 Nov Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
18 Nov Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
19 Nov Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
16 Nov -14
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values,
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for November: 3
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
17 Nov -30 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
30%
18 Nov -25 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
19 Nov -20 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
COMMENT: Depressed conditions observed during local day for Northern
Australia regions and during local night for Equatorial regions.
Southern Australia/NZ and Antarctic regions had mostly normal
ionospheric support support over the last 24 hours. With an increase
in geomagnetic activity in the last 24 hours, depressed MUFs
of ~20% are expected for all regions with possible disturbed
conditions for Antarctic regions over the next 3 days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 15 Nov
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.7E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.9E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 6.80E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 8%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 15 Nov
Speed: 312 km/sec Density: 0.9 p/cc Temp: 16800 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
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