[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 15 November 08
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Nov 16 10:36:11 EST 2008
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 15/2330Z NOVEMBER 2008 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 15 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 16 NOVEMBER - 18 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 15 Nov: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 15 Nov: 68/2
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
16 Nov 17 Nov 18 Nov
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 68/2 68/2 68/2
COMMENT: Very Low solar activity over the last 24 hours. Solar
wind speed increased from ~320km/s at the beginning of the UT
day to be 400km/s at the time of this report. Bz, the north/south
component of interplanetary magnetic field increased in magnitude
again with the rise in solar wind velocity to fluctuate between
+/-10nT from 1800UT onwards. Solar activity is expected to remain
very low for the next 3 days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 15 Nov: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 15 Nov : A K
Australian Region 5 22100123
Darwin 6 22000124
Townsville 7 22211223
Learmonth 7 22000234
Camden 5 22100123
Canberra 5 22100123
Hobart 4 22100113
Casey(Ant) 9 33311123
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 15 Nov :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Camden 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 2 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 15 Nov : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 14 Nov : A K
Fredericksburg 1
Planetary 1 0000 0001
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
16 Nov 8 Quiet to Unsettled
17 Nov 6 Quiet
18 Nov 5 Quiet
COMMENT: Quiet to Unsettled conditions observed over the last
24 hours. Quiet to Unsettled conditions expected for the next
24 hours with Quiet conditions for 17Nov-18Nov.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
15 Nov Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
16 Nov Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal
17 Nov Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal
18 Nov Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
15 Nov -15
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day,
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for November: 3
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
16 Nov -20 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
30%
17 Nov -20 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
18 Nov -15 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
COMMENT: Depressed conditions observed during local day and night
for Northern Australia/Equatorial regions. Southern Australia/NZ
and Antarctic regions had mostly normal ionospheric support over
the last 24 hours. Depressed conditions are expected for mid
to low latitude regions for the next three days due to very low
solar activity.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 14 Nov
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.3E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.9E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.10E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:11%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 14 Nov
Speed: 292 km/sec Density: 3.5 p/cc Temp: 14300 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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