[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 12 November 08

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Nov 13 10:31:55 EST 2008


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 12/2330Z NOVEMBER 2008 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 12 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 13 NOVEMBER - 15 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: ** YELLOW **
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 12 Nov:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 12 Nov:  71/6


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             13 Nov             14 Nov             15 Nov
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    70/5               70/5               70/5
COMMENT: Very Low solar activity over the last 24 hours. Region 
1008 produced a B1.4 class flare at 0009UT. Solar wind speed 
has not increased and is ~320km/s at the time of this report. 
Bz, the north/south component of interplanetary magnetic field 
ranged between +/-3nT over the UT day. Solar activity is expected 
to remain Very Low for the next 3 days. Region 1008 has not displayed 
any significant increase in spot size over the last 24 hours, 
but still has a slight chance of producing a C-class event. 




-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 12 Nov: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 12 Nov :  A   K           
   Australian Region       3   11111111
      Darwin               2   11100111
      Townsville           6   22221222
      Learmonth            3   11111111
      Camden               2   10111011
      Canberra             2   10111011
      Hobart               3   11111111
      Casey(Ant)           9   33321122
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 12 Nov : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice_Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Camden               0   (Quiet)
      Gnangara             0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             3   (Quiet)
      Hobart               0   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 12 Nov : A 
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 11 Nov :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         1
           Planetary              1   0101 0000     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
13 Nov     5    Quiet 
14 Nov     5    Quiet 
15 Nov     8    Quiet to Unsettled 
COMMENT: Quiet conditions observed over the last 24 hours. Mostly 
Quiet conditions expected for the next three days, with posible 
Unsettled periods for 14Nov-15Nov due to the effects of a high 
latitude positioned coronal hole. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
12 Nov      Fair-normal    Normal-fair    Normal         
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
13 Nov      Fair-normal    Normal-fair    Normal        
14 Nov      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Normal        
15 Nov      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Normal        

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
12 Nov   -26

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Depressed by 35% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day,
      Depressed by 20% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for November:   3

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
13 Nov   -20    near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                20% 
14 Nov   -15    near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to 
                15% 
15 Nov   -10    near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to 
                10% 
COMMENT: Depressed conditions again observed during local night 
for Northern Australia/Equatorial regions. Southern Australia 
and NZ regions HF conditions improved with mostly normal ionospheric 
support over the UT day. Mostly normal conditions for Antarctic 
regions. Depressed conditions expected for low latitude regions 
and mostly normal conditions for all other regions for the next 
3 days. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 11 Nov
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   6.5E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.9E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.50E+08   (moderate fluence)   
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:13%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A1.0

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 11 Nov
Speed: 367 km/sec  Density:    2.2 p/cc  Temp:    39200 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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