[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 11 November 08
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Nov 12 10:36:40 EST 2008
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 11/2330Z NOVEMBER 2008 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 11 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 12 NOVEMBER - 14 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: ** YELLOW **
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 11 Nov: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 11 Nov: 71/6
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
12 Nov 13 Nov 14 Nov
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 72/8 72/8 72/8
COMMENT: Very Low solar activity over the last 24 hours. Region
1008 that has emerged over the last 2 days has led to an increrase
in the solar x ray flux, with minor A-class activity levels.
Solar wind speed decreased again from 400km/s at 0000UT to be
340km/s at the time of this report. Bz, the north/south component
of interplanetary magnetic field ranged between +/- 2nT over
the UT day. Solar activity is expected to remain very low for
the next 3 days with the slight chance of a C-class flare from
region 1008.
-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 11 Nov: Quiet
Estimated Indices 11 Nov : A K
Australian Region 2 11110011
Darwin 1 11010001
Townsville 6 22221122
Learmonth 2 11110101
Camden 1 01110011
Canberra 0 01010000
Hobart 0 10010000
Casey(Ant) 5 2-321111
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 11 Nov :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Camden 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 9 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 11 Nov : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 10 Nov : A K
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 3 1211 1100
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
12 Nov 5 Quiet
13 Nov 5 Quiet
14 Nov 5 Quiet
COMMENT: Quiet conditions observed over the last 24 hours. Quiet
conditions expected for the next three days, with posible isolated
periods of activity at high latitudes.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
11 Nov Fair-normal Fair-normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
12 Nov Fair-normal Fair-normal Normal-fair
13 Nov Fair-normal Fair-normal Normal-fair
14 Nov Fair-normal Fair-normal Normal-fair
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
11 Nov -30
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day,
Depressed by 30% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for November: 3
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
12 Nov -25 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
13 Nov -20 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
14 Nov -15 near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to
15%
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 11 was issued on 10 November
and is current for interval 11-12 November. Depressed conditions
again observed during local night for Northern Australia/Equatorial
regions. Southern Australia and NZ regions experienced mostly
normal HF conditions during local day with occasional depressed
periods, and depressions of 20% during local night. Mostly normal
conditions for Antarctic regions. Depressed periods are expected
to continue for the next 3 days for all regions.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 10 Nov
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 5.9E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.8E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.20E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:12%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 10 Nov
Speed: 422 km/sec Density: 2.0 p/cc Temp: 49600 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------
IPS Radio and Space Services email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,
confidential or copyright information. The views expressed in
this message are those of the individual sender, unless
specifically stated to be the views of IPS. If you are not
the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments.
Occasionally IPS sends email promoting IPS products and
services to its mailing list customers. If you do not wish to
receive this promotional material please email
no-spam at ips.gov.au with the subject header:UNSUBSCRIBE"
More information about the ips-dsgr
mailing list