[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 10 November 08

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Nov 11 10:41:35 EST 2008


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 10/2330Z NOVEMBER 2008 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 10 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 11 NOVEMBER - 13 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: ** YELLOW **
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 10 Nov:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 10 Nov:  69/3


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             11 Nov             12 Nov             13 Nov
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    70/5               70/5               70/5
COMMENT: Very Low solar activity over the last 24 hours. The 
solar wind speed has decreased again to be ~400km/s at the time 
of this report. Bz, the north/south component of interplanetary 
magnetic field ranged between +/-2nT over the UT day. Solar 
activity is expected to remain very low for the next 3 days. 




-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 10 Nov: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 10 Nov :  A   K           
   Australian Region       4   11112211
      Darwin               4   11111212
      Townsville           7   22222222
      Learmonth            2   10111201
      Camden               3   11112101
      Canberra             3   11112101
      Hobart               3   11112101
      Casey(Ant)           8   23322212
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 10 Nov : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice_Springs       NA
      Camden               0   (Quiet)
      Gnangara             0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart               0   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 10 Nov : A 
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 09 Nov :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        10
           Planetary             12   4332 1122     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
11 Nov     6    Quiet 
12 Nov     6    Quiet 
13 Nov     6    Quiet 
COMMENT: Quiet conditions observed over the last 24 hours. Quiet 
conditions expected for the next three days, with posible isolated 
periods of activity at high latitudes. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
10 Nov      Fair-normal    Fair-normal    Fair-normal    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
11 Nov      Fair-normal    Fair-normal    Fair-normal   
12 Nov      Fair-normal    Fair-normal    Fair-normal   
13 Nov      Fair-normal    Fair-normal    Fair-normal   

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
10 Nov   -35

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Depressed by 20% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Depressed by 20% during local night.
      Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Depressed by 25% during local day,
      Depressed by 20% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for November:   3

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
11 Nov   -30    near predicted monthly values/depressed 20 to 
                30% 
12 Nov   -30    near predicted monthly values/depressed 20 to 
                30% 
13 Nov   -25    near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                20% 
COMMENT: Depressed conditions observed during local night for 
Northern Australia and Equatorial regions. Southern Australia 
and NZ regions experienced depressions of 25% during local day 
and night. Mostly normal conditions for Antarctic regions. Depressed 
conditions are expected for the next 3 days for all regions. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 09 Nov
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.2E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.9E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 7.00E+07   (normal fluence)   
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 8%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A1.0

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 09 Nov
Speed: 538 km/sec  Density:    2.2 p/cc  Temp:    79200 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------


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