[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 09 November 08

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Nov 10 10:29:05 EST 2008


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 09/2330Z NOVEMBER 2008 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 09 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 10 NOVEMBER - 12 NOVEMBER

STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: ** YELLOW **

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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 09 Nov:  Very low

Flares: None

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 09 Nov:  68/2

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             10 Nov             11 Nov             12 Nov
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    68/2               68/2               68/2

COMMENT: The solar wind speed has decreased from about 585 to 
460 km/s over the past 24 hours. The interplanetary magnetic 
field Bz component fluctuated between +/- 5nT. The visible disk 
is spotless. 

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 09 Nov: Quiet to unsettled
with active levels at high latitudes. 

Estimated Indices 09 Nov :  A   K           
   Australian Region       9   33231222
      Darwin               8   32231222
      Townsville          11   33232223
      Learmonth            9   32232222
      Camden               8   32231222
      Canberra             9   33231222
      Hobart               9   33231212
      Casey(Ant)          16   44432223
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 09 Nov : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice_Springs       NA
      Camden               2   (Quiet)
      Gnangara             2   (Quiet)
      Canberra             2   (Quiet)
      Hobart               5   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 09 Nov : A 
           Fredericksburg        12
           Planetary             12                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 08 Nov :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        11
           Planetary             14   4334 3111     

2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
10 Nov     5    Quiet 
11 Nov     8    Quiet to unsettled 
12 Nov     5    Quiet 

COMMENT: Isolated periods of activity still possible at high
latitudes.

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
09 Nov      Fair-normal    Fair-normal    Fair-normal    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
10 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal
11 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
12 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

Date   T index
09 Nov   -16

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
      Near predicted monthly values at Vanimo with
      enhancements to 50% 17-19 UT. Near predicted monthly
      values to 45% enhanced at Niue with depressions to 30%
      19-23 UT.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values with depressions to 45%
      mostly 10-21 UT.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values with depressions to 30%
      mostly 09-21 UT.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values to 30% depressed.

Predicted Monthly T index for November:   3

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
10 Nov   -20    Near predicted monthly values with depressions 
                to 40% possible at times. 
11 Nov   -15    Near predicted monthly values with depressions 
                to 30% possible at times. 
12 Nov   -15    Near predicted monthly values with depressions 
                to 30% possible at times. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 08 Nov
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   3.7E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.8E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.10E+07   (normal fluence)   
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 2%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A1.0

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 08 Nov
Speed: 561 km/sec  Density:    2.1 p/cc  Temp:   148000 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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