[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 08 November 08

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 08/2330Z NOVEMBER 2008 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 08 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 09 NOVEMBER - 11 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 08 Nov:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 08 Nov:  68/2

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             09 Nov             10 Nov             11 Nov
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    68/2               68/2               68/2

COMMENT: The solar wind speed increased from 500 to 580 km/s 
The interplanetary magnetic field Bz component fluctuated 
between +/- 5nT. The visible disk is spotless. 

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 08 Nov: Quiet to Active 

Estimated Indices 08 Nov :  A   K           
   Australian Region      13   33343222
      Darwin              11   23243122
      Townsville          13   33343222
      Learmonth           15   33253222
      Camden              11   33243112
      Canberra            13   33343222
      Hobart              12   33343121
      Casey(Ant)          19   45-43222
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 08 Nov : 
      Darwin              13   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Camden              13   (Quiet)
      Gnangara            17   (Quiet)
      Canberra            19   (Quiet)
      Hobart              29   (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 08 Nov : A 
           Fredericksburg        15
           Planetary             15                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 07 Nov :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         7
           Planetary              8   0122 2124     

2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
09 Nov    10    Quiet to Unsettled 
10 Nov     4    Quiet 
11 Nov     6    Quiet 

COMMENT: Expect the geomagnetic field to have unsettled conditions 
and isolated cases of active levels for today 09 November. Followed 
by mostly quiet conditions as the high speed solar wind stream 
returns to normal levels. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
08 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
09 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
10 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal
11 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

Date   T index
08 Nov     2

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
      Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for November:   3

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
09 Nov   -10    near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                30% 
10 Nov     0    Near predicted monthly values 
11 Nov     0    Near predicted monthly values 

COMMENT: Noted an etended period of sporadic E at Niue that went 
from 05 to 13 UT. Other sites showed isolated cases of sporadic E. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 07 Nov
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.9E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.8E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.00E+06   (normal fluence)   
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 0%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A1.0

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 07 Nov
Speed: 398 km/sec  Density:    6.3 p/cc  Temp:    68100 K  Bz:   2 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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