[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 13 November 08

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Nov 14 10:45:01 EST 2008


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 13/2330Z NOVEMBER 2008 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 13 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 14 NOVEMBER - 16 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 13 Nov:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 13 Nov:  69/3


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             14 Nov             15 Nov             16 Nov
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    70/5               70/5               68/2
COMMENT: Very Low solar activity over the last 24 hours. Solar 
wind speed declined from 320km/s to be ~290km/s at the time of 
this report. Bz, the north/south component of interplanetary 
magnetic field ranged between +/-2nT over the entire UT day. 
Solar activity is expected to remain very low for the next 3 
days. Region 1008 has not displayed any significant increase 
in spot size over the last 24 hours, but still has a slight 
chance of producing a C-class event. 




-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 13 Nov: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 13 Nov :  A   K           
   Australian Region       2   11110011
      Darwin               2   11000012
      Townsville           4   22111121
      Learmonth            0   00000001
      Camden               1   20100001
      Canberra             0   10000001
      Hobart               1   11111000
      Casey(Ant)           6   23221111
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 13 Nov : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice_Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Camden               0   (Quiet)
      Gnangara             0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart               0   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 13 Nov : A 
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 12 Nov :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         4
           Planetary              2   0011 1001     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
14 Nov     5    Quiet 
15 Nov     8    Quiet to Unsettled 
16 Nov     6    Quiet 
COMMENT: Quiet conditions observed over the last 24 hours. Mostly 
Quiet conditions expected for the next three days, with posible 
Unsettled periods due to the effects of a high latitude positioned 
coronal hole. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
13 Nov      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Normal         
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
14 Nov      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Normal        
15 Nov      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Normal        
16 Nov      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Normal        

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
13 Nov   -16

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
      Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Depressed by 25% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for November:   3

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
14 Nov   -15    near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to 
                15% 
15 Nov   -10    near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to 
                15% 
16 Nov   -10    near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to 
                15% 
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 13 was issued on 13 November 
and is current for interval 13-14 November. Depressed conditions 
again observed during local night for Northern Australia/Equatorial 
regions. Southern Australia/NZ and Antarctic regions had mostly 
normal ionospheric support over the last 24 hours. Depressed 
conditions are expected to continue for low latitude regions 
and mostly normal conditions for all other regions for the next 
3 days. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 12 Nov
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   7.0E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.9E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.40E+08   (moderate fluence)   
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:13%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A1.0

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 12 Nov
Speed: 343 km/sec  Density:    3.3 p/cc  Temp:    36100 K  Bz:  -1 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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