[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 13 November 08
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Nov 14 10:45:01 EST 2008
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 13/2330Z NOVEMBER 2008 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 13 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 14 NOVEMBER - 16 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 13 Nov: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 13 Nov: 69/3
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
14 Nov 15 Nov 16 Nov
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 70/5 70/5 68/2
COMMENT: Very Low solar activity over the last 24 hours. Solar
wind speed declined from 320km/s to be ~290km/s at the time of
this report. Bz, the north/south component of interplanetary
magnetic field ranged between +/-2nT over the entire UT day.
Solar activity is expected to remain very low for the next 3
days. Region 1008 has not displayed any significant increase
in spot size over the last 24 hours, but still has a slight
chance of producing a C-class event.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 13 Nov: Quiet
Estimated Indices 13 Nov : A K
Australian Region 2 11110011
Darwin 2 11000012
Townsville 4 22111121
Learmonth 0 00000001
Camden 1 20100001
Canberra 0 10000001
Hobart 1 11111000
Casey(Ant) 6 23221111
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 13 Nov :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Camden 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 13 Nov : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 12 Nov : A K
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 2 0011 1001
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
14 Nov 5 Quiet
15 Nov 8 Quiet to Unsettled
16 Nov 6 Quiet
COMMENT: Quiet conditions observed over the last 24 hours. Mostly
Quiet conditions expected for the next three days, with posible
Unsettled periods due to the effects of a high latitude positioned
coronal hole.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
13 Nov Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
14 Nov Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal
15 Nov Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal
16 Nov Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
13 Nov -16
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for November: 3
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
14 Nov -15 near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to
15%
15 Nov -10 near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to
15%
16 Nov -10 near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to
15%
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 13 was issued on 13 November
and is current for interval 13-14 November. Depressed conditions
again observed during local night for Northern Australia/Equatorial
regions. Southern Australia/NZ and Antarctic regions had mostly
normal ionospheric support over the last 24 hours. Depressed
conditions are expected to continue for low latitude regions
and mostly normal conditions for all other regions for the next
3 days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 12 Nov
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 7.0E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.9E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.40E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:13%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 12 Nov
Speed: 343 km/sec Density: 3.3 p/cc Temp: 36100 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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IPS Radio and Space Services email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au
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