[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 17 May 08
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun May 18 09:40:30 EST 2008
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 17/2330Z MAY 2008 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 17 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 18 MAY - 20 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 17 May: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 17 May: 71/6
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
18 May 19 May 20 May
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 72/8 72/8 72/8
COMMENT: There are four emerging flux regions on the visible
disk. Three of the regions have been given active region numbers
10994, 10995, 10996 due to showing one or two spots. A B-class
xray flared occurred, however, it is uncertain at this time which
region produced the flare. As the regions emerge there is a slight
chance for a C-class flare over the next several days. The SOHO
LASCO C3 Imager shows a weak expulsion from the east limb beginning
at approximately 1342UT 17 May. This is unlikely to be geoeffective.
The solar wind has gone from 400 to 320 km/s.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 17 May: Quiet
Estimated Indices 17 May : A K
Australian Region 2 21110101
Darwin 2 21010101
Townsville 6 22121222
Learmonth 1 11000100
Camden 0 10000000
Canberra 0 10000000
Casey(Ant) 2 21210100
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 17 May :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Culgoora 0 (Quiet)
Camden 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 17 May : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 16 May : A K
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 4 2111 2111
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
18 May 6 Quiet
19 May 8 Quiet to Unsettled
20 May 30 Active to Minor storm
COMMENT: Today and tomorrow are expected to go from quiet to unsettled
levels and the 20th of May is expect to be active with isolated
cases of minor storm levels due to a recurrent coronal hole.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
17 May Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
18 May Normal Normal Normal
19 May Normal Normal Normal-Fair
20 May Fair Fair Fair-Poor
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
17 May 11
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 15% over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for May: 6
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
18 May 10 near predicted monthly values
19 May 10 near predicted monthly values
20 May 10 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Recurrent data shows that the ionosphere will be resilient
and have near normal monthly predicted T index values despite the
geomagnetic disturbance on 20 May.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 16 May
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.6E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.8E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.20E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 4%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 16 May
Speed: 397 km/sec Density: 2.4 p/cc Temp: 77300 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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