[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 18 May 08
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon May 19 09:09:45 EST 2008
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 18/2330Z MAY 2008 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 18 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 19 MAY - 21 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** RED ** ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 18 May: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 18 May: 72/8
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
19 May 20 May 21 May
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 72/8 72/8 72/8
COMMENT: There are three emerging flux regions on the visible
disk, 10994, 10995, and 10996. AR 10994 has more than doubled
in size over night. There is a slight chance of a C-clas flare
from this region. The solar wind was steady over the last 24
hours and the Bz component of the IMF was predominately northward.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 18 May: Quiet
Estimated Indices 18 May : A K
Australian Region 2 11121000
Townsville 6 22122---
Learmonth 2 11121000
Camden 1 11011000
Canberra 1 01011000
Casey(Ant) 4 12221110
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 18 May :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Culgoora 0 (Quiet)
Camden 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 18 May : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 17 May : A K
Fredericksburg 1
Planetary 2 1000 1101
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
19 May 8 Quiet to Unsettled
20 May 30 Active to Minor storm
21 May 18 active
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 5 was issued on 17 May and is
current for interval 18-20 May. Today the geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels and the 20th and
21st of May are expected to be active with isolated cases of
minor storm levels due to a recurrent coronal hole.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
18 May Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
19 May Normal Normal Normal-Fair
20 May Fair Fair Fair-Poor
21 May Normal Normal-Fair Fair
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
18 May 7
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 30% over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for May: 6
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
19 May 10 near predicted monthly values
20 May 10 Near predicted monthly values
21 May 10 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Recurrent data shows that the ionosphere should be resilient
and have near normal monthly predicted values despite the the
geomagnetic disturbance on 20 and 21 May.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 17 May
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.5E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.8E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.80E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 4%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 17 May
Speed: 362 km/sec Density: 1.7 p/cc Temp: 36400 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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