[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 16 May 08

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 16/2330Z MAY 2008 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 16 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 17 MAY - 19 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 16 May:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 16 May:  72/8

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             17 May             18 May             19 May
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    72/8               72/8               72/8

COMMENT: There are several emerging flux regions on the visible 
disk, some with single spots, however, it is not expected that 
they will increase solar activity above very low today (17 May). 
As regions grow they have a slight chance of producing C-class 
flares over the following several days. 

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 16 May: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 16 May :  A   K           
   Australian Region       5   22122111
      Darwin               4   21122111
      Townsville           7   22222222
      Learmonth            4   21121111
      Camden               3   11012111
      Canberra             3   11012111
      Casey(Ant)           6   13222211
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 16 May : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice_Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Culgoora             0   (Quiet)
      Camden               4   (Quiet)
      Gnangara            19   (Quiet)
      Canberra             4   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 16 May : A 
           Fredericksburg         3
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 15 May :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         2
           Planetary              4   0110 1112     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
17 May     6    Quiet 
18 May     6    Quiet 
19 May     8    Quiet to Unsettled 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
16 May      Normal         Normal         Normal         
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
17 May      Normal         Normal         Normal
18 May      Normal         Normal         Normal
19 May      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

Date   T index
16 May    14

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
      Enhanced by 25% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 30% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Enhanced by 30% over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for May:   6

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
17 May    15    near predicted monthly values 
18 May    15    near predicted monthly values 
19 May    15    near predicted monthly values 

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 15 May
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   2.4E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  2.0E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.30E+07   (normal fluence)   
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 6%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A1.0

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 15 May
Speed: 330 km/sec  Density:    2.7 p/cc  Temp:    42000 K  Bz:   2 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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