[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 05 May 08

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue May 6 09:44:04 EST 2008


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 05/2330Z MAY 2008 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 05 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 06 MAY - 08 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 05 May:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 05 May:  68/2


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             06 May             07 May             08 May
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    68/2               68/2               68/2
COMMENT: Solar activity remains very low. Solar wind parameters 
remain moderately elevated around 600km/s due to a coronal hole 
wind stream. http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/ace/MAG_SWEPAM_24h.html 
New sunspot group AR993 is currently a simple BXO beta magnetic 
configuration http://www.ips.gov.au/Solar/1/2
http://www.ips.gov.au/Solar/3/3/4 
and is slowly growing in complexity. It grew from 3 spots yesterday 
to 5 spots today and increased in size.
http://www.ips.gov.au/Solar/3/5 
Probability of flaring from AR993 is currently low but can be 
followed at http://www.ips.gov.au/Solar/3/6
http://www.ips.gov.au/Solar/2/5 




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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 05 May: Quiet to Unsettled 

Estimated Indices 05 May :  A   K           
   Australian Region       7   22312222
      Darwin               8   32312222
      Townsville          10   23312332
      Learmonth           10   22313332
      Camden               6   22302221
      Canberra             6   22302221
      Hobart               8   22313222
      Casey(Ant)          12   43312-32
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 05 May : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            4   (Quiet)
      Alice                0   (Quiet)
      cul                 NA
      cdn                 NA
      gna                 NA
      can                 NA
      hbt                 NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 05 May : A 
           Fredericksburg         8
           Planetary             10                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 04 May :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         6
           Planetary              8   1233 1222     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
06 May    10    Quiet to Unsettled 
07 May     8    Quiet to Unsettled 
08 May     6    Quiet 
COMMENT: Solar wind speed remain moderately elevated due to continuing
coronal hole wind stream. IMF Bz was equal north/south 
with no extended southward periods to cause geomagnetic merging. 
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled at mid to low latitudes 
with isolated active to storm intervals observed at high latitudes 
only. Expect similar but quietening conditions for the next two 
days. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
05 May      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
06 May      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
07 May      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
08 May      Normal         Normal         Normal

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
05 May    11

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Enhanced by 55% over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for May:   6

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
06 May    12    0 to 10% above predicted monthly values 
07 May    12    0 to 5% above predicted monthly values 
08 May     6    Near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: Some short-term variability observed Equatorial/N Aus 
regions over the UT day. http://www.ips.gov.au/HF_Systems/1/2/1 
Regional foF2 and T-index near or slightly above monthly average 
http://www.ips.gov.au/HF_Systems/1/6/2
http://www.ips.gov.au/HF_Systems/1/6/1 
probably due to some enhanced EUV from AR993 and possibly excitation 
from low-moderate geomagnetic activity from the coronal-hole 
high-speed solar-wind stream. See Maximum Usable Frequency (MUF) 
report http://www.ips.gov.au/HF_Systems/1/2/4 
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 04 May
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.3E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.7E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.60E+07   (normal fluence)   
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 4%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A1.0

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 04 May
Speed: 537 km/sec  Density:    2.5 p/cc  Temp:   177000 K  Bz:   1 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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