[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 04 May 08

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 04/2330Z MAY 2008 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 04 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 05 MAY - 07 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 04 May:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 04 May:  68/2


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             05 May             06 May             07 May
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    68/2               68/2               68/2
COMMENT: Solar activity remains very low. Solar wind parameters 
are moderately elevated due to a coronal hole wind stream. 




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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 04 May: Quiet to Unsettled 

Estimated Indices 04 May :  A   K           
   Australian Region       8   22332112
      Darwin               5   22221121
      Townsville           9   223332-0
      Learmonth            8   22322222
      Camden               5   12221112
      Canberra             7   12331112
      Hobart               7   12331112
      Casey(Ant)          11   333322-2
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 04 May : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Canberra            40   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Hobart              34   (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 04 May : A 
           Fredericksburg         8
           Planetary             12                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 03 May :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         9
           Planetary             12   3323 3232     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
05 May     8    Quiet to Unsettled 
06 May    10    Quiet to Unsettled 
07 May     8    Quiet to Unsettled 
COMMENT: Solar wind parameters remain moderately elevated due 
to a coronal hole wind stream. The geomagnetic field was quiet 
to unsettled with isolated active intervals observed at high 
latitudes only. Expect similar conditions next three days. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
04 May      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
05 May      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
06 May      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
07 May      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
04 May     7

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Variable conditions during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Variable localised enhancements/disturbances.

Predicted Monthly T index for May:   6

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
05 May    10    Near predicted monthly values 
06 May    10    Near predicted monthly values 
07 May    10    Near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: Some short-term variability observed Equatorial/N Aus 
regions over the UT day. Expect mostly normal ionospheric conditions 
low to mid latitudes. Disturbed periods possible 05 - 06 May 
mainly at high latitudes in association with elevated geomagnetic 
activity. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 03 May
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   2.2E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.6E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.30E+07   (normal fluence)   
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 4%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A1.0

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 03 May
Speed: 498 km/sec  Density:    4.9 p/cc  Temp:   148000 K  Bz:   2 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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