[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 06 May 08
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed May 7 09:50:16 EST 2008
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 06/2330Z MAY 2008 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 06 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 07 MAY - 09 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 06 May: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 06 May: 67/0
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
07 May 08 May 09 May
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 68/2 68/2 68/2
COMMENT: Solar activity remains very low. Solar wind velocity
started at an elevated 650km/s due to ongoing coronal hole stream
but quickly reduced 08-10UT to 550km/s, probably indicating the
coronal hole effects will quickly diminish on the 7th. AR993
continues as a BXO beta magnetic configuration with polarity
associated to the new cycle-24. Probability of flaring is very
low. http://www.ips.gov.au/Solar/3/3 http://www.ips.gov.au/Solar/2/4
http://www.ips.gov.au/Solar/3/6 http://www.ips.gov.au/Solar/2/5
http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/ace/MAG_SWEPAM_24h.html
http://sohowww.nascom.nasa.gov/data/realtime-images.html
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 06 May: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 06 May : A K
Australian Region 8 33321112
Darwin 7 33221112
Townsville 10 33322222
Learmonth 9 33322112
Camden 7 33321011
Canberra 8 33331011
Hobart 9 33331111
Casey(Ant) 11 34322212
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 06 May :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 2 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Culgoora 4 (Quiet)
Camden 23 (Quiet to unsettled)
Gnangara 20 (Quiet)
Canberra 33 (Quiet to unsettled)
Hobart 35 (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 06 May : A
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 10
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 05 May : A K
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 11 2230 2332
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
07 May 8 Quiet to Unsettled
08 May 6 Quiet
09 May 6 Quiet
COMMENT: Solar wind speed began moderately elevated but reduced
rapidly early in the day to ~550km/s. Still slightly elevated
but probably indicating the coronal hole wind stream will diminish
rapidly over the next day. IMF Bz was mostly northward and zero
during the day, so not favourable geomagnetic merging. The geomagnetic
field was quiet to unsettled at mid to low latitudes. High-latitudes
had active to storm intervals due to elevated Vsw despite IMF
Bz north. Expect quietening conditions for the next day in the
absence of prolonged IMF Bz southwards and return to normal the
day after. http://www.ips.gov.au/Geophysical/1/2/1
http://www.ips.gov.au/Geophysical/1/3/1
http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/ace/MAG_SWEPAM_24h.html
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
06 May Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
07 May Normal Normal Normal-Fair
08 May Normal Normal Normal
09 May Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Effects of magnetic disturbance diminishing.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
06 May 13
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Variable conditions during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 30% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 45% over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for May: 6
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
07 May 12 0 to 10% above predicted monthly values
08 May 6 0 to 5% above predicted monthly values
09 May 6 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Short-term variability and spread-F observed Equatorial/N
Aus regions , particularly during daytime. Regional foF2 and
T-index generally slightly above monthly average although Equatorial/N
Aus values sometimes below average for an hour or two. Strong
ionosphere possibly due to some enhanced EUV from solar AR993
and excitation from low-moderate geomagnetic activity from the
coronal-hole wind-stream although this is now diminishing. Night
Es observed in the north-west (LEA) and pre-dawn spread-F in
the south-east (HBT, NLK). Expect return to mostly normal ionospheric
conditions at low to mid latitudes over the next day. Antarctic
ionosphere still disturbed and should remain so for a couple
of days. http://www.ips.gov.au/HF_Systems/1/2/4
http://www.ips.gov.au/HF_Systems/1/2/1
http://www.ips.gov.au/HF_Systems/1/6/2
http://www.ips.gov.au/HF_Systems/1/6/1
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 05 May
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.7E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.7E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.20E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 6%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 05 May
Speed: 611 km/sec Density: 2.1 p/cc Temp: 173000 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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