[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 22 March 08
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Mar 23 10:33:22 EST 2008
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 22/2330Z MARCH 2008 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 22 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 23 MARCH - 25 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 22 Mar: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 22 Mar: 70/5
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
23 Mar 24 Mar 25 Mar
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 70/5 70/5 70/5
COMMENT: The ACE spacecraft plots show that the Solar wind has
remain around 450 km/s over the last 24 hours. Also the Interplanetary
Magnetic Field (IMF) Bz component fluctuated between +/-6 nT.
No spots on the visible disk of the sun at this time, however,
LASCO C3 imager shows a weak CME IP erupting from the east limb,
which commenced around 1600UT.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 22 Mar: Quiet
Estimated Indices 22 Mar : A K
Australian Region 3 11111112
Darwin 4 21111112
Townsville 7 22222222
Learmonth 3 11012112
Camden 3 11111012
Canberra 2 11011012
Hobart 4 11111212
Casey(Ant) 7 23321112
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 22 Mar :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 7 (Quiet)
Hobart 7 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 22 Mar : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 21 Mar : A K
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 5 2101 1222
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
23 Mar 4 Quiet
24 Mar 4 Quiet
25 Mar 10 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Expect the geomagnetic activity to increase on
25 March as a recurrent coronal hole reaches its geoeffective
location on the solar disk.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
22 Mar Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
23 Mar Normal Normal Normal
24 Mar Normal Normal Normal
25 Mar Normal Normal Normal-Fair
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
22 Mar -1
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for March: 6
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
23 Mar 5 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
24 Mar 5 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
25 Mar 0 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
COMMENT: High latitudes showed ocassional spread F conditions,
particularly at local night hours. For more detail on particular
regions and times go to "www.ips.gov.au/HF_Systems/1/3" to view
the ionograms. Expect slight depressions at low latitudes and
the North Australian region due to very low solar activity.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 21 Mar
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.7E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.8E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.60E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 5%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 21 Mar
Speed: 493 km/sec Density: 2.3 p/cc Temp: 94500 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
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