[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 21 March 08
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Mar 22 10:19:54 EST 2008
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 21/2330Z MARCH 2008 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 21 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 22 MARCH - 24 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 21 Mar: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 21 Mar: 68/2
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
22 Mar 23 Mar 24 Mar
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 70/5 70/5 70/5
COMMENT: The ACE spacecraft plots show that the Solar wind declining
from 530 to 450 km/s over the last 24 hours. Also the Interplanetary
Magnetic Field (IMF) Bz component fluctuated between +/-4 nT.
No spots on the visible disk of the sun at this time.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 21 Mar: Quiet
Estimated Indices 21 Mar : A K
Australian Region 6 22221122
Darwin 4 21111122
Townsville 7 22222222
Learmonth 8 32--2222
Camden 4 11121112
Canberra 4 11121122
Hobart 3 11121111
Casey(Ant) 8 23321122
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 21 Mar :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 4 (Quiet)
Canberra 34 (Quiet to unsettled)
Hobart 31 (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 21 Mar : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 20 Mar : A K
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 8 2111 4222
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
22 Mar 6 Quiet
23 Mar 4 Quiet
24 Mar 4 Quiet
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
21 Mar Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
22 Mar Normal Normal Normal
23 Mar Normal Normal Normal
24 Mar Normal Normal Normal
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
21 Mar -4
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values,
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for March: 6
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
22 Mar 5 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
23 Mar 5 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
24 Mar 5 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
COMMENT: Darwin and Niue showed sporadic E (Es) through out most
of the UT day. High latitudes showed ocassional spread F conditions.
For more detail on particular regions and times go to
"www.ips.gov.au/HF_Systems/1/3"
to view the ionograms. Expect slight depressions at low latitudes
and the North Australian region due to very low solar activity.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 20 Mar
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.5E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.7E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.00E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 6%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 20 Mar
Speed: 546 km/sec Density: 1.8 p/cc Temp: 156000 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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IPS Radio and Space Services email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au
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