[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 20 March 08
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Mar 21 10:19:34 EST 2008
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 20/2330Z MARCH 2008 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 20 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 21 MARCH - 23 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 20 Mar: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 20 Mar: 68/2
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
21 Mar 22 Mar 23 Mar
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 70/5 70/5 70/5
COMMENT: The ACE spacecraft plots show that the Solar wind has
ranged from 470 km/s to 570 km/s over the last 24 hours and is
presently 530 km/s. Also the Interplanetary Magnetic Field (IMF)
Bz component fluctuated between +/-5 nT. No spots on the visible
disk of the sun at this time.
-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 20 Mar: Quiet to Active
Estimated Indices 20 Mar : A K
Australian Region 9 21234211
Darwin 6 21123211
Townsville 10 22234222
Learmonth 9 21233---
Camden 8 22224111
Canberra 9 21234211
Hobart 8 21224211
Casey(Ant) 11 3--33222
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 20 Mar :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 4 (Quiet)
Hobart 13 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 20 Mar : A
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 10
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 19 Mar : A K
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 6 0111 3312
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
21 Mar 8 Quiet to Unsettled
22 Mar 6 Quiet
23 Mar 6 Quiet
COMMENT: The mid to southern region of Australia again showed
an unexpected increase in geomagnetic activity between 12-14
UT (active levels), otherwise it was mostly quiet with unsettled
conditions. The increase in geomagnetic activity between 12-14 UT
may be due to a build up and release of charged particles in the
magnetic tail due to an elevated solar wind speed. This trend
could continue until the solar wind returns to a normal level
around 400 km/s.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
20 Mar Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
21 Mar Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
22 Mar Normal Normal Normal
23 Mar Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: HF propagation may be slightly degraded in the mid latitudes
due to unsettled to active conditions in the Earth's magnetic field
between 12-14 UT.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
20 Mar -3
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed 20% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for March: 6
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
21 Mar 0 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
22 Mar 5 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
23 Mar 5 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
COMMENT: The Australian region showed sporadic E (Es) during
local day hours only. High latitudes showed ocassional spread
F conditions and Es during the local night time hours. For more
detail on particular regions and times go to
"www.ips.gov.au/HF_Systems/1/3" to view the ionograms. Expect
slight depressions at low latitudes and the North Australian
region due to very low solar activity.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 19 Mar
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.8E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.6E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.20E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:12%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 19 Mar
Speed: 496 km/sec Density: 2.2 p/cc Temp: 121000 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------
IPS Radio and Space Services email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,
confidential or copyright information. The views expressed in
this message are those of the individual sender, unless
specifically stated to be the views of IPS. If you are not
the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments.
Occasionally IPS sends email promoting IPS products and
services to its mailing list customers. If you do not wish to
receive this promotional material please email
no-spam at ips.gov.au with the subject header:UNSUBSCRIBE"
More information about the ips-dsgr
mailing list