[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 23 March 08
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Mar 24 10:12:28 EST 2008
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 23/2330Z MARCH 2008 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 23 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 24 MARCH - 26 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 23 Mar: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 23 Mar: 72/8
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
24 Mar 25 Mar 26 Mar
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 72/8 72/8 72/8
COMMENT: The ACE spacecraft plots show that the Solar wind is
approximately 470 km/s and Bz component of the IMF fluctuated
between +/- 5nT over the last 24 hours. Expect the solar wind
to start to increase late on 25 March due to a recurrent coronal
hole. The trend shows this coronal hole to be increasing in
strength over the last two solar rotations. Also note STEREO
behind spacecraft shows a extended period of a southward Bz.
LASCO C3 imager has shown CME activity on the east limb over the
past few days and presently what appears to be a weak expulsion
on the northeast limb beginning at around 0900 UT 23 March. The
GOES sattelite showed two periods of background enhancements
in the x-ray flux at approximately 1900 and 2200 UT 23 March.
There may be a slight chance of a C-class x-ray flare over the
next several days. An emerging flux region 10987 is located at
S08E50 and includes 4 spots at this time.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 23 Mar: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 23 Mar : A K
Australian Region 8 22332211
Darwin 6 22322111
Townsville 9 22332222
Learmonth 7 22322221
Camden 7 22332111
Canberra 8 22332211
Hobart 7 22232211
Casey(Ant) 10 34322211
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 23 Mar :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 4 (Quiet)
Hobart 2 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 23 Mar : A
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 8
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 22 Mar : A K
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 5 1011 1113
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
24 Mar 6 Quiet
25 Mar 14 Unsettled to Active
26 Mar 24 active
COMMENT: Expect the geomagnetic activity to increase on 25 March
late in the UT day, due an increase in the solar wind speed.
This geomagnetic disturbance is likely to last for several days.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
23 Mar Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
24 Mar Normal Normal Normal
25 Mar Normal Normal Normal-Fair
26 Mar Normal Normal-Fair Fair
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
23 Mar 7
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for March: 6
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
24 Mar 5 near predicted monthly values
25 Mar 5 near predicted monthly values
26 Mar 0 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
COMMENT: High latitudes showed ocassional spread F conditions,
particularly at local night hours. For more detail on particular
regions and times go to "www.ips.gov.au/HF_Systems/1/3" to view
the ionograms.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 22 Mar
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.2E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.8E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.10E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 6%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 22 Mar
Speed: 437 km/sec Density: 2.0 p/cc Temp: 71300 K Bz: 2 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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