[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 02 March 08

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Mar 3 10:33:44 EST 2008


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 02/2330Z MARCH 2008 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 02 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 03 MARCH - 05 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 02 Mar:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 02 Mar:  69/3


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             03 Mar             04 Mar             05 Mar
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    70/5               70/5               70/5
COMMENT: Very Low solar activity over the last 24 hours. Solar 
activity is expected to be Very Low for the next 3 days. Solar 
wind velocity began to decline, from 800km/s at 0000UT to be 
600km/s at the time of this report. Bz fluctuated between +/-3nT 
over the UT day. 




-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 02 Mar: Quiet to Unsettled 

Estimated Indices 02 Mar :  A   K           
   Australian Region       8   22322312
      Darwin               6   21222311
      Townsville          10   22322323
      Learmonth            3   11111211
      Camden               9   22332312
      Canberra             9   22332312
      Hobart              10   22332322
      Casey(Ant)          11   ---32323
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 02 Mar : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             2   (Quiet)
      Hobart              11   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 02 Mar : A 
           Fredericksburg         8
           Planetary             10                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 01 Mar :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        13
           Planetary             19   5433 3332     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
03 Mar     8    Quiet to Unsettled 
04 Mar     6    Quiet 
05 Mar     4    Quiet 
COMMENT: The geomagnetic field was Quiet to Unsettled over the 
last 24 hours. Quiet to Unsettled conditions are expected for 
the next 24 hours with Quiet conditions for 04Mar-05Mar. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
02 Mar      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Fair           
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
03 Mar      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Fair          
04 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair   
05 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair   

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
02 Mar    -4

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day,
      No data available during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for March:   5

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
03 Mar     0    near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to 
                10% 
04 Mar     5    near predicted monthly values 
05 Mar     5    near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions observed during the last 
24 hours across most regions, with minor depressions for Equatorial, 
Northern AUS and Southern AUS/NZ regions during local day. Disturbed 
HF conditions for Antarctic regions. Mostly normal conditions 
expected for all regions for the next 3 days. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 01 Mar
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   6.5E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.6E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 7.50E+08   (high fluence)   
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:27%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A1.0

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 01 Mar
Speed: 758 km/sec  Density:    1.1 p/cc  Temp:   375000 K  Bz:   1 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------


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