[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 01 March 08

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Mar 2 10:44:41 EST 2008


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 01/2330Z MARCH 2008 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 01 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 02 MARCH - 04 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 01 Mar:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 01 Mar:  69/3


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             02 Mar             03 Mar             04 Mar
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    70/5               70/5               70/5
COMMENT: Very Low solar activity over the last 24 hours. Solar 
activity is expected to be Very Low for the next 3 days. Solar 
wind velocity remained at elevated levels, ranging between 
700-800km/s over the UT day due to the effects of the current
geoeffective coronal hole high speed solar wind stream. Bz 
fluctuated between +/-5nT over the UT day. 




-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 01 Mar: Quiet to Active 

Estimated Indices 01 Mar :  A   K           
   Australian Region       9   22322322
      Darwin              12   33333222
      Townsville          13   -333-332
      Learmonth            3   11111121
      Camden              11   --3--322
      Canberra            11   --3--322
      Hobart              11   --3-3322
      Casey(Ant)          15   -----333
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 01 Mar : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            4   (Quiet)
      Canberra            50   (Unsettled)
      Hobart              60   (Unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 01 Mar : A 
           Fredericksburg        18
           Planetary             30                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 29 Feb :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        18
           Planetary             27   4444 3545     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
02 Mar    11    Unsettled 
03 Mar     8    Quiet to Unsettled 
04 Mar     6    Quiet 
COMMENT: The geomagnetic field was Quiet to Active over the last 
24 hours with minor storm levels at high latitudes. Mostly Unsettled 
conditions are expected for the next 24 hours with possible isolated 
Active periods. Quiet to Unsettled conditions expected for
03Mar-04Mar. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
01 Mar      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Fair-poor      
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
02 Mar      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Fair-normal   
03 Mar      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Fair-normal   
04 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair   

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
01 Mar    12

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 30% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Enhanced by 15% over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for March:   5

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
02 Mar    -5    near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                20% 
03 Mar     0    near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to 
                10% 
04 Mar     0    Near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 6 was issued on 1 March 
and is current for interval 1-2 March. Enhanced HF conditions 
observed during the last 24 hours across most regions. Enhanced 
conditions during local night for Equatorial regions while Northern 
AUS, Southern AUS/NZ regions experienced enhanced MUFs during 
local day, with otherwise mostly normal conditions. Disturbed 
HF conditions for Antarctic regions. Chance of depressed MUF's 
ranging from 10-20% during local day for Northen AUS and Southern 
AUS/NZ regions over the next 24-48 hours along with overnight 
enhancements. Continued disturbed conditions for Antarctic regions. 
Expected return to normal conditions between 03Mar-04Mar. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 29 Feb
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.8E+07
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.8E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.10E+08   (moderate fluence)   
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:11%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A1.0

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 29 Feb
Speed: 676 km/sec  Density:    2.4 p/cc  Temp:   328000 K  Bz:  -1 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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